Shown here is the maximum projected radar reflectivity, forecasting dbz (radar values) of over 45, which is usually more than sufficient for thunderstorms. The strongest storms occur in 60-70 dbz radar values, which are not nearly as common as 45 dbz.
What does concern me is the bowing motion of this line. Down at the tip of the line is a bowing segment which to me looks like it could formulate into a high-wind event scenario. The same member 'A' is depicting surface winds of up to 25 knots, which equates to a good 29 MPH.
In Southeast Missouri is also somewhat interesting, with more separated cell segments. In spring, this would be much more worrisome, as these separate cells may even come to fruition to discrete super cells. Luckily, we have not gotten into the full bloom of spring just yet.
-Andrew
6 comments:
Thanks Andrew. I live in West Tn (Milan ) and I know we are on borrowed time according to what you and others are saying about the upcoming spring severe threat. Thanks for keeping us safe. Chris
Yeah, Tennessee might be in for a pretty rough spring. I'm glad I can help.
-Andrew
Hello, Andrew. How are you doing? This svr wx season is just looking nasty. once the cape levels start to rise I think all it will take is a couple of negative tilted troughs and things will get very nasty. I will be away for a few days so i will have little spare time on my hands. The weather looks decent at least. I was kind of hoping for a couple of severe t-storms, but that doesn't look too likely attm. The hardest thing is looking for hotels that don't have bedbugs!!! I hope things are going well for you and I will try to get some more people onto your site. I would really like to chat with you( using the comment section) some time during any extreme weather events. I should be available for most of today. currently this pattern is BORING!!!!!! Keep up the great work.
Hello, Mike. Back to discussing the 2012-2013 winter. The one big thing that really would help your area is the low sunspot cycle. It would mean below average temps for your area and that would probably mean above average snow for your area. Since we are not even into fall it is still too early to be sure of anything. Have a great day , Mike!!!
Back to 2012-2013 winter. A low sunspot cycle would encourage a negative NAO. This would favor the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic, an Southeast as the areas to receive the greatest snow totals and coldest weather. There has also been the effect of some volcanoes erupting which would favor somewhat cooler temps worldwide. The El Nino will kick up the Southern jet pumping in moisture. So overall I expect a much different winter for 2012-2013. Yes, we are still a VERY Long way off, but early indicators would favor a colder winter for many. The big thing I note for the Northeast is all it takes for a big snow in winter is a negative Nao. As for the rest of March, things will be mild after the brief cold shot we are currently dealing with. And there will be the severe season to deal with. Stormchasers be ready.
Eastern WX: Yeah, a negative tilted storm with high CAPE values traditionally seen in spring only spells trouble. Have a good day, Eastern WX.
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