Thursday, April 19, 2012

Don't Count Off ECMWF Megastorm for Northeast Just Yet

The ECMWF has been calling for a strong storm system to bash the East Coast, potentially delivering snowfall in excess of 1 foot in much of the Northeast. Many have been throwing this out the window as the GFS takes a seemingly more sensible solution and goes out to sea. Let's review some things about the ECMWF and GFS' bad blood.

•Historically, the ECMWF is the 'better' model.
•The ECMWF correctly predicted the 2011 October snowstorm.
•The ECMWF was the 1st model to catch onto the idea of what become the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard (Source).
•The GFS is run 4 times a day, while the ECMWF is run twice.
•The ECMWF is based overseas in Europe.

For those wondering how I determined the ECMWF is historically the 'better' model, take a look below.
This is a combination of the latest GFS and ECMWF verification scores for the past many many runs over the Northern Hemisphere (20 N - 80 N). As you can see, the ECMWF has much better verification scores over the past several days, while the GFS lags behind with at least 4 runs highlighted in red, indicating unusually low verification scores.

Now, whether this storm happens remains to be seen. But I personally find it awfully convincing with the ECMWF/ECMWF Ensembles lined up for a strong storm system for the Northeast against the less-dominant GFS.


ERN WX said...

ECMWF wins!!!!!!! Lots of rain! SPC has my area under "see text" for tomorrow! I think they may need to upgrade to slight risk. Maybe a little storm chasing tomorrow!

ERN WX said...

09z SREF shows the axis for the best rain. My solution for now.....

Anonymous said...

if the storm would have happened in febuary would it have been a major snow storm

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, if this storm happened in February it would be a monster for many.

mike paulocsak said...

The rain shield is expanding in size and intensity west of Ohio.Good news for many!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ERN WX said...

Significant rain and snow is expected with this system!!