Wednesday, April 25, 2012

South Wisconsin May Get Crushed with Late Season Snow

Sorry everyone, the automatic publisher didn't work! Sorry!
The latest GFS is showing over a foot of snow for southern Wisconsin and far eastern Iowa. This comes as a fast moving storm system appears to absorb additional moisture to provoke additional snow amounts.

Before I go any further: This image may be produced with 10:1 ratios, which would be higher than what is being shown here. The keyword is 'MAY', because a comparison to other 10:1 ratio images yielded different results. That said, I am treating this image as a 10:1 ratio image in order to not get everyone's hopes up too high.

Anyhow, I would expect a realistic scenario to be 1-4 inches in southern Wisconsin, with another 2-4 in Pennsylvania. I really don't know with the difference in images using the exact same data, which should yield the same results.


Anonymous said...

Well Andrew, you've officially become overly model dependent. This forecast was taken out of the core of the model's snow area, where you expected a few inches:
Not a chance of snow in sight.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, one thing to note is the NWS is normally cautious with storms. How do I know, I interned there a few years ago. They would handle this by mentioning it in the HWO or AFD. That is what they would do. A branch of the NWS, the HPC has these areas in their snowfall probabilities map. I think that the models may be too high, but think there is a potential for a few inches of snow. Also, please note that with the last one, they didn't go too crazy with it until they got fairly close to it. Right now it is TOO EARLY to put snow in the fcst. Andrew, is NOT overly model dependent. When the ECMWF was showing its storms of the century this winter, he posted why they would not happen. Also, Henry Margusity, a senior meteorologist, has mentioned the poss. of snow. Please note I am not in any way attepmting to be rude. I will not lower myself to that. My thoughts are it is tooooo early to say 1-2 feet but a few inches seems reasonable. Check the HWO & AFD to see if they mention the snow potential. Thank you.

Mtg said...

Thanks Ern wx for the message you sent me. NWS they will handle this one with caution. It is late April. When it gets closer they'll go crazy over it. Tehy always do. I trust the models with this one. Watch the forecats and see what they do. Trust the HPC. Ao and NAO could help. Next winter will be the BIG ONE. > It is too obvious.

Anonymous said...

Will NYC see a big snow this winter? Locals say so.

M.P. said...

Give Andrew a break! He tries his best to forecast.If you remember this past winter,the models were stir crazy with the potential winter storms that were supposed to happen,but never evolved.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: The models are varying and do not have a consensus. I frequently mentioned how it may happen. If i was indeed model dependent, this post would be screaming on how it would happen, without mentioning the caveats.

Anonymous: Everywhere that typically sees snow will likely see more snow than this last year.