Sunday, May 13, 2012

East Pacific Invest 90 - May 13, 2012

Invest 90 in the East Pacific has a 40% chance of development, as satellite imagery indicates a cluster of enhanced thunderstorms, with high clouds that appear to be making a swirling motion that may indicate rotation in the system. Should this happen, I would not be surprised to see this system really ramp up.

The track for Invest 90 looks to be split in 2 directions. The first one involves a potential landfall in Mexico, while the 2nd track, with more models, involves going out to sea with the system. Seeing as many storm systems in this position have gone out to sea in the past, this may be the solution for this system.

Intensity forecasts differ to soem degree, with only one model projecting tropical storm status winds. The short range models are pretty confident in a stagnant wind speed (maybe a slight uptick) over the next day and a half, with a drop off beyond that period.

Disregard AL92
The Tropical Cyclone Track Probability from Florida State University is projecting that Mexico has a 5% chance of a landfall from this system in 4 days. Mexico also has a 1% chance for landfall from the same system at hurricane status (Category 1 or 2). Hawaii has a measly 1% chance of landfall at any intensity.


No comments: