Sunday, May 13, 2012

Atlantic Invest 92- May 13, 2012

Atlantic Invest 92 remains in the far eastern Atlantic. Chances of development have been downgraded to 20%, and clouds appear to be dispersing. However, rotation is evident in the remaining clouds, so if storms should reform, this may become a stronger system.

Latest tracks of the system include the system actually going towards Europe and the Azores, with Portugal and Spain at risk off the LBAR model. The tracks have yet to form a consensus, but there is concern at this time for that potential situation.

Intensity forecasts do show that this storm does have winds that classify it as a tropical storm. However, essential pieces are unavailable, thus the NHC's hesitation to call it a subtropical system. It does indicate that it isn't even a tropical low anymore.

Risk for landfall in areas (disregard the top 2 rows)
As of now, the Tropical Cyclone Track Probability system at Florida State University is projecting that the Azores have roughly a 28% chance of getting hit by this invest, with a 16% chance of landfall at hurricane intensity. There is an 18% chance of landfall in Europe at any intensity. The Azores would be impacted in 19 hours, according to this graphic.


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