Sunday, May 13, 2012

Tropical Cyclone May Make Landfall on Florida, South Carolina Shores

Warning: These forecasts are associated with very long range timeframes. This has a chance of not verifying at all, so use EXTREME CAUTION with this forecast.

The 12z FIM, which has been showing a tropical system developing in the Caribbean for the last 3+ days, is now showing the same system hitting Florida, and again in South Carolina in late May. Let's take a look.

Figure 1: MSLP from the 12z FIM on May 25th.

Figure 2: 10m winds (knots) from the 12z FIM, valid on May 25th.
As seen above, a tropical system appears poised to crash onto Florida shores, which may very well affect big cities like Orlando. Wind speeds indicate that this system would be of tropical storm status. I am very concerned about this situation. However, considering this is the first time the model is showing this scenario has me a little less convinced that it will happen (which is pretty low to begin with).

Figure 3: MSLP off the 12z FIM valid May 26.

Figure 4: 10m winds (knots) off the 12z FIM valid May 26.
As seen above, the system is then directed to make a second, weaker landfall in South Carolina. Wind speeds tell me that the system would be borderline-tropical storm status, unsurprising after the Florida landfall. Now, this model does appear to have the right idea with landfalling in South Carolina, with a steady windstream going to the west off of Africa. This west flow is then diverted against the tropical system, pushing it onshore.

Considering that the Atlantic is prepping for this hurricane season, this is not entirely out of the question, especially since this scenario has been trending on this model for at least 3 days.



ERN WX said...

WinterStorm, I expect Southeast Michigan to have about a normal snowfall year. Perhaps above normal. Winter may be back loaded. Weak Ninos tend to be that way for your area. And they tend to have 6+ inch storms. '78 was a good year./

Anonymous said...

The Pacific seems to be out of it's hiatus. ET lows seem to be forming again. One is expected to sweep through running on two weak jets. Weak cutoff or stationary storm most likely over much of rockies and plains. Dryline scenario likely for central abd southern plains. Question is the cap. Strong cap of -200. ND and SD can have 3000 kj of CAPE and isolated lifted indices of -8 within that. Too early but we need rain. If the Gulf or Yucatan does form something, I hope Florida is spared but receive needed tropical moisture that can even as well reach South. They need frequent rain to dent the drought.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, for everyone of us it is either drought or deluge. Andrew, I was thinking it would make my boring life so much more exciting to have a tropical system hit the East Coast. Straight on up! At least it would help the drought zones. Irene was so exciting. Andrew, I now think a tropical system will form... the track?????/

Mtg said...

Yo, Ern Wx, a tropical system has been what I have been rooting for since March. My usual man. Florida deserves rain.