Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Invest 94 Forms in Caribbean

Invest 94 has formed in the Caribbean seas today, with satellite imagery showing an area of showers and thunderstorms over Cuba to the southwest. There are a few clouds that look very bold. Those are the big time thunderstorms. The colors that are shown along with the satellite imagery shows dry air. As you can see, there is a lot of dry air to the north of the invest, and some to the south.

Believe it or not, this does appear to be the system that I was tracking on the FIM for over a week.
Models vary greatly, but from what the FIM was showing a long while ago, the track through western Cuba and to the east of Florida does appear to have the backing of several models and the FIM runs I had been closely watching. There remains potential for this system to move into the Gulf or even hit Florida altogether, but I think I will go with the east of Florida solution for now.
Intensity forecasts are pretty weak, whereas the FIM had a full blown tropical storm for this system after it moved through Cuba. However, the heavy majority of models are indicating that it will die out rather quickly and not make much of an impact to land or sea.


1 comment:

ERN WX said...

This storm's development does not look good. Strong shear is evident and I can't find a low level circulation. Diagnosis: a scare but likley not anything big. El Nino's mark./