Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Sunday Severe Threat Incorporated into LRC

Sunday's severe weather threat has been found to be incorporated into Lezak's Recurring Cycle, or LRC. Roughly 40-50 days ago, in mid April, we had the tornado outbreak across the central Plains. Severe weather reports are shown below.

As you can see, tornadic storms raced across much of Kansas, some of northern Oklahoma and parts of Iowa and Nebraska. Looking below at 500mb heights from April 14-15, we see a strong trough had shifted into the Plains, producing massive wind shear and a big chance for severe weather. In fact, that day involved the SPC issuing a high risk on Day 2 for only the 2nd time in history, as seen below.
500mb heights from April 14-15, 2012

Evolution of April 14-15 severe weather outbreak risks
The LRC looks to swing a trough into the East again, which has prompted the SPC to issue a risk area in the day 4-8 timeframe. Time will tell, but a storm with connections to the April 14-15 one will certainly be interesting to watch.


Anonymous said...

Somewhere in central Nebraska, I found shear layer deep as 25-27 m/s for Sunday on twisterdata hodograph 00Z Mon. Low cape but flimsy cap. Skew-T appears to show broad updrafts narrowing before midlevels and strong downdrafts after midlevels. Who knows but ominous hodograph signature for possible supercells and/or LEWPS.

Storm-Chaser Wx said...

well it seems, when you look at the days 3-7 forecast map on HPC, we start to get into a pattern after day 5, because the storm for sunday (day 5) comes from the southwest in texas, with a low connected to a dryline front that moves up northeastward into the northern plains, I hope it could stay like this for awhile so I can get some imagery and videos.