Thursday, May 17, 2012

LRC Aligns for Potential Severe Weather Outbreak in Late May

The Lezak Recurring Cycle does appear to be pointing out a severe weather event in the late May timeframe. Now, the event I have caught is about 40 days in between the event and what is being forecast, and that is just outside the 45-50 day cycle period that has been recognized for this year's LRC pattern, so use with caution.

On April 15, 2012, we had a severe weather event associated with a strong low pressure system, as seen below.
(I do realize that the maps are about a day in difference, but they involve the same system.) A strong storm system had moved east and northeast into the far northern Great Lakes and produced a regional tornado outbreak, mainly in Kansas and southern Iowa into Nebraska. This storm system was below the 996mb mark, indicating how strong it was. Let's take a look at the May 25 forecast off the FIM.

The FIM is showing a very strong system hitting the far northern Plains after coming out of the Western US. Similar to the April 15 event, a ridge of high pressure will be located in the Eastern US, with a warm sector crossing the Plains and Midwest. The difference involves strength and placement of the system, which is to be expected, considering each cycle is not exact to the previous one. That said, if this does match up with the LRC, this is what may happen.



Storm-Chaser Wx said...

ok, so when is this event supposed to happen, I live in northern iowa and i am kind of concerned for this event.

ERN WX said...

Slight risk out for part of the Plains tomorrow. May be more of a rehearsal for the big one. LRC wins. Might have a lot to post later./

Anonymous said...

Storm-Chaser Wx, check your precip chances and track any changes. I live in KS and the precip. chances are constantly uncertain for me.

Storm-Chaser Wx said...

things could become interesting by sometime next saturday morning into the afternoon as the latest gfs run model is putting all of southern minnesota, northern iowa, north eastern nebraska, and soutwestern wisconsin in sfc cape values as high as 4000 j/kg.

ERN WX said...

Andrew, about what you said on the HWRF. I thought that too, and was kind of scared that I was just seeing things. I think the model tends to get excited by tropical systems./

ERN WX said...

Storm-Chaser Wx, the 22-25 have the potential to be interesting for your area. Here to help, Andrew whenever and however I can./