NCEP Ensembles Highlight Tropical Cyclone Potential

In the image below, the NCEP 12z Ensembles based at the ESRL indicated high precipitation over Cuba, which may mean that these ensembles are in line with this morning's FIM model post.

I am thinking that this would not hit the Gulf of Mexico for now and it may ride the coast on the potential that it even develops.

I cannot confirm that it is even showing a tropical system, as the MSLP charts are not as specific as I would like them to be.

Andrew