Friday, May 11, 2012

Florida May Be Brushed By Tropical System in Late May

The FIM model continues to project a tropical system to impact the Caribbean region and may even scrape Florida through the East Coast. As of now, no landfalls on the US appear to happen in this 0z FIM run, but other regions do look to get in on the action.

Wind speeds appear to surpass tropical storm speed on this FIM run, valid for May 24th. Considering the strongest winds are on the eastern side of this system, if this solution did verify, Florida would likely be spared the worst wind damage. However, flooding is a different story with all tropical systems, as they are all laden with over-abundant moisture.
I did check the precipitation charts for this, and it does appear that upwards of 2 inches is possible in a 6 hour period for Florida, though more possible in Cuba, should this verify.

Remember- this is a long range forecast and the chances of this exact solution of verifying are low.


Anonymous said...

GFS shows this as a 1000 mb low at sfc. The Atlantic will be very warm as well and moist. The question is how well will this thing survive being it will encounter wind shear and/or insufficient water temps at some point. This low is powerful and lets see what it turns out to be.

Anonymous said...

Done more reading. The Carribean and Gulf could be active late May.

ERN WX said...

Tropics may try to go crazy before El Nino takes over. /

Anonymous said...

NWS said La Nina is dead and now it is ENSO neutral. Neutrals are capable of severe weather and tropical weather. Severe is probably to remain in Texas near the Gulf. They've been having brutal stuff near Corpus and San Antonio with the large hail and cyclic classic supercells. Florida could be threatened this year. Was Hurricane Andrew possibly in a neutral cycle? I think spring 1991 was neutral but not sure later. El Nino or near conditions are expected later in the summer as said by NWS.