(Pre-warning: This is a long range forecast at the very end of the model's run. Chances of this verifying are low at this time, but could very well change in the future.)
The FIM model is showing the potential for a tropical cyclone to be present in the Caribbean region on May 24th. Before we go any further, while the chances of this verifying are low, as mentioned in the pre-warning, the GFS model was also showing something very close to this solution in yesterday's 12z run. While it is no longer showing the same solution, I find it very possible that these two models may form a consensus at any time, as both show a tropical system in the same timeframe- just a different track.
I will be bringing more information as it becomes available.
Andrew
I will be bringing more information as it becomes available.
Andrew
4 comments:
Last night 18z GFS had one too after 300.
Perfect time for a tropical system to slam the east coast. Few would expect anything in May. Would be interesting to see another Irene, this time in May. And yesterday, yet another wasted coastal storm.[
I don't know, I wouldn't trust the FIM at all, as it still being tested and it is still being perfected, so I highly doubt that the solution is plausible. It was a good thing you put up the warning. Still, that is interesting that both the GFS and FIM would show a similar solution (I mean the GFS was showing an unnaturally strong storm for late May
Joshua: I wouldn't go as far to totally discount it- while it is indeed experimental, recent runs have proven to be slightly more accurate than the GFS.
http://fim.noaa.gov/fim_ac_stats/displayPlot.cgi?fileName=http://fim.noaa.gov/fim_ac_stats/bin_plots/HGT_500_168_AllHours_match:0_&date=latest
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