Sunday, July 22, 2012

2012-2013 Winter Forecast Graphic

This is the accompanying graphic to the latest winter forecast I issued, which can be seen here.

Sorry to everyone that this was delayed, I had a mix up in communications.

I am anticipating that an El Nino will continue into the winter months. At the moment, the Nino appears to be heading at least central based-ward, which would turn out an OK winter for the Midwest to the East Coast. The Nino should be on the weak to moderate side, which would also give the Midwest and Plains some snow this winter.

Confidence in the following information: 65%
As shown on the graphic above, I highlighted the East Coast for the snowy conditions. A recent post on the negative NAO (click here), as well as an El Nino and PDO possibly moving positively, a very interesting East Coast winter may be in the works.

Confidence in the following information: 70%
I believe that the drought still plaguing the Midwest and Plains at this time will continue, as the El Nino encourages warm and mostly dry conditions to prevail across those areas. However, the weakness of the Nino historically can spread the wealth to the mentioned areas, and this could provide a small amount of relief, should a heat wave melt any snow or prompt systems to produce rain over snow in the Midwest.

Confidence in the following information: 60%
The Gulf Coast looks to be in for a wet winter, with drought conditions already easing up on the region. Due to the presence of a developing El Nino combined with El Nino-like QBO values, I feel that this trend of wetness over the Gulf Coast will continue into fall and winter. It could get tricky should the NAO pull a fast one and keep the region dry for some periods of time.

The rest of the country has yet to gain enough confidence for me to outline it.



Eddie said...

As of this how much now would Detroit get? Because when we had hot summers in Michigan winters seemed to be a lot colder and snowier

Andrew said...

I can't pinpoint exact amounts, but the above normal temperatures could very well get the lake effect snow machine going on over-overdrive this winter.

ERN WX said...

Eddie, if we have a weak Nino, abv avg snow is likely. Mdt Nino, near nrml snowfall likely. Both situations support blw avg temps. Andrew, I like the map, just put in blw avg snow for far NW and FAR N-Central. All Ninos tend to be that way, but the atmosphere is rather freaky lately. I am liking things now for the Midwest and East, but things can change.

Anonymous said...

If conditions in fact become "snowy" for South Carolina and Georgia, I'd say the Middle Atlantic and New England are in for the Winter From Hell. We can only cross our fingers and hope that the negative NAO gets destroyed again this year.

Anonymous said...

do you think Charlotte NC will have a cold and snowy winter? and if so how many winter storms do you think we'll have? thanks for your time

Andrew said...

Anonymous: I think Charlotte will be wetter than normal, but whether its snow remains to be seen. The number of storms cannot be predicted this far out.

beth said...

Hey Andrew I know normally if you live by the water (ocean) your most likely get less snow as if you were to live more inland... do you think Toms River / Long Beach Island (Ocean County), NJ will get at least one or two significant snow storms?

Andrew said...

The Northeast in general should get at least a few good snowstorms if El Nino acts as it should.