Sunday, July 22, 2012

Tropical Wave Poses Formation Potential

The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean and far southern Florida. This outline comes as a vigorous tropical wave is in the vicinity of the area.

There is a 10% chance of formation over the next 2 days from this tropical wave, and while showers and storms are all over, upper level winds are unfavorable for intense formation, while lower level winds could also be on the iffy side, and this could pile on the stress of unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

Of importance is also how anywhere from 10 to 30 knots of wind shearing is over the area, which will also act to suppress the strongest of tropical cyclone formation. All in all, formation isn't looking too good for the short term, but if shearing can die down and upper level winds calm down, the potential will certainly strengthen.


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