Sunday, August 19, 2012

GFS Smashes Hurricane into Texas in Late August

The latest 12z GFS is projecting a landfall of a hurricane right into downtown Houston, Texas at the very end of August.

Yesterday, the 12z GFS also showed a major landfall of a hurricane on the East Coast. Now, the wide variability of the track is not reassuring, but I am seeing a trend of a system threatening the US. As of now, there is nowhere near a track, but when you get a few scenarios within several runs where a major event happens within a certain range, it usually means something.

Because Invest 94 (the system that would be responsible for this) has begun a westward trend rather than a northwest trend, this track would seem like an OK solution. However, the GFS is known for being deliberately too strong and too fast with tropical systems, so take this for what it's worth.


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