Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Decent Severe Weather Threat Exists Across Great Lakes This Weekend

A decent severe weather threat looks to be evolving over the Great Lakes this weekend, as a strong low pressure system looks to swing south from Canada into the Northern Plains.

As this disturbance moves into the Northern Plains, wind shearing looks to develop across much of the Great Lakes. That, combined with instability and widespread favorable 850mb winds, looks to provoke a potentially interesting severe weather situation this weekend.

A squall line looks to develop along a cold front attached to the disturbance, which, feeding on the available instability and in the midst of favorable lower level winds, should be able to produce a severe weather threat that will cross the severe weather spectrum, including a chance of tornadoes. However, pinpointing the exact risks in exact areas is too tricky this far out, and should be determined around the Friday timeframe.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a long range severe weather risk area over much of the Northeast on Sunday. The way this is projected by the Storm Prediction Center, along with GFS model forecasts, shows that either a squall line or several bowing clusters may be possible over the weekend in the Northeast. This would be yet another time that a damaging wind event hits the northeast part of the nation in a short period of time.


1 comment:

Mike Paulocsak said...

I can see this happening due to all the heat/humidity we have been having.These fronts probably will be active until late fall.This has been a hot spot this summer with storms this summer.The estimated damage due to the derecho that struck Ohio is 12 million dollars in damage to the electric coops in Ohio.Truly amazing!Columbus shipped out 15 truck loads of utility poles,20 loads of conductors and 400 transformers during the storm recovery period.The coop country living magazine calls it the "Midwest Hurricane." We had help from surrounding states from other coops to help restore power."HATS OFF TO THEM for their help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!