Saturday, August 4, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto 8:30 PM CT Forecast

8:30 PM CT
August 4, 2012

I am projecting Tropical Storm Ernesto to move on a west-northwest path across the Caribbean as a tropical storm before briefly gaining Category 1 strength prior to making a first landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Following that landfall, Ernesto will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, but quickly strengthen back into a hurricane. As rapid strengthening occurs, model guidance and myself find it possible that Ernesto may briefly reach major hurricane status.

Because model guidance only carries Ernesto to roughly a day after exiting the Yucatan Peninsula, a stronger hurricane than what I am projecting may be in store.

Upper level winds look to be on the downturn when Ernesto ejects from the Peninsula, and this could help development in Ernesto after it begins its journey in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is to be noted that the track I am showing will likely only work if significant strengthening occurs. Should strengthening occur slower than what I am thinking, the tropical cyclone will likely make landfall in northeast Mexico or extreme southern Texas.

More model watching is needed for me to be confident in this forecast, especially the portion of the forecast in the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, close monitoring is needed for the Gulf Coast.



ERN WX said...

Based upon the mdl bias of keeping troical systems too far SW, I think we should be prepared for a NE turn. I do like your track because it is NE of the NHC. They failed with the last one, because they have the problem of basing fcsts off of one mdl. Fcstsr's rule of thumb one: never base anything off of one mdl. I learned that one the hard way when I was a rookie fcstr.;;

Andrew said...

I agree with your thoughts. Looking at the dynamical models, it would seem likely that my track is on par with forecasts, possibly a bit too far south.

ERN WX said...

Now mdls seem to be pulling it S. My track adjusted S; not as far as NHC, but close. This one doesn't want to turn N.