Saturday, September 29, 2012

Snow May Fall In Midwest As October Begins

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm
There appears to be a possibility for some snow on the morning of October 8th in the Midwest, possibly as far south as Chicago, IL and Gary, IN.

The latest GFS model forecast is showing critical thickness values on the left half of the image above. Critical thickness is a term used by forecasters to deem whether the air is cold enough for snow. Any precipitation above a critical thickness line may be snow- the more critical thickness lines are south of precipitation, the better snow potential there is.

This potential snow event looks to be in the early hours of Monday, roughly around 1 AM central time. All thickness lines, minus the yellow 1000-850mb thickness line, are south of the projected precipitation. Now, this could very well be cold rain or a slight ice event, but I think that cities like Milwaukee have a shot at flakes flying, while Chicago has a lesser potential for such activity. Not a zero chance, but less than areas to the north.

The 6z GFS does show some very slight accumulations in central and southern Wisconsin, but nothing major.


(Caption copy-pasted from COD-NexLab)


ERN WX said...

I am glad all of the cold is not being compltely wasted too early like last year, but folks are still getting a little early treat. Andrew great coverage of this. Interesting trough....unlike last year.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello ERN WX and Andrew!This could be a good sign of things to come!

ERN WX said...

I say it is what is coming, Mike! BIG SNOWS SOON!!!!!!!! Well, December.