Saturday, September 29, 2012

Nadine Closing In On Longest-Lasting Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

"Hurricane Nadine? I thought she was gone!" You might be thinking this. But, Nadine actually reformed a while back, and has been chilling out in the Atlantic as a hurricane. As of now, it is a Category 1 hurricane, and is no threat to North America. However, Europe may be at risk.

The image above shows the forecast track probability off the 0z GEFS for Nadine. The consensus is next to nothing, but the models appears to move northwest before making a loop and moving east-northeast. From there, the models drop off in a wild spread.

This unknown track comes as Nadine closes in on the longest-lasting tropical cyclone record in the Atlantic. The record is 28 days, and is held by Hurricane San Ciriaco from August 1899. This is no 20 year record, we're talking over 2 centuries that this record has stood. Nadine is currently at 18 days, just a week and 3 days shy of tying the record.

Looking at the models, it looks like Nadine may die off if she is to move northeast into a less favorable environment. Should this happen, Nadine would probably break the Top 10 chart of longest-lasting tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Number 10 is a 19.25 days (1 day above Nadine) in September 1893, held by a storm called 'Storm 9'.


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