Sunday, September 23, 2012

Summarizing Recent Winter-Related Posts

I know what I have been putting out in the last several days has been confusing, because there's so much information and there isn't really any good way to put it out there without some confusion coming along. So, this post is dedicated to clearing up any confusion related to any of the posts I've been putting out in the last week or two.

Q: What's with the El nino?
A: The El Nino is present in the waters, meaning the waters are warmer than normal. However, the atmosphere is failing to recognize that there is an El Nino- lower level winds are not favorable for El Nino conditions.

Q: I heard of an underwater cold pool a few days ago. What is that?
A: There is a large expanse of cooler than normal waters that developed under the El Nino- about 100-200 meters below the surface. This cold pool of water could take away the warmth of the El Nino, possibly killing it altogether.

Q: So is there going to be an El Nino for the winter?
A: As of now, we're not sure. I am seeing some signs pointing towards a lack of an El Nino this year. However, climate models are keeping the Nino (albeit weak) through the fall and winter. The waters are pretty murky, so to speak, and nothing is set in stone.

Q: Is your Official Winter Forecast still valid after all this talk about no El nino?
A: For the moment, yes. I will make any big changes in the Final Winter Forecast, which will come out in late October or early November.

Q: So what should I think about the upcoming winter?
A: In a summary, cool and wet for the East Coast, slightly dry for the Midwest and portions of the Ohio Valley. Wet for the South, warm for the Northern Plains.

If you have any more questions, don't hesitate to ask them in the comments below.



Anonymous said...

So your thinking that the Ohio Valley will be dry? I'm thinking it will be wet!The east coast will be dry too! They wil not get the crushing snows like everyone issaying!It's way,wasy,way,too earlt to tell how this winter is going to be!Remember last winter.Some thought that the winter was going to be cold and snowy!Time will tell!!!!!!!!

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew! What are your thoughts for northern & eastern Ohio this coming winter.Please exclude the lake effect areas of northeast Ohio.Thanks for all the hard work you put towards this site,it's much appreciated!

Andrew said...

Anonymous: What backing do you have behind your claims? (i.e. ENSO, PNA, MJO, etc.)

Mike: It's becoming more and more of a toss-up. If the El Nino dies off, Ohio will probably be wetter than normal. However, if the El Nino does not die off, a slightly drier winter appears likely.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Thanks for the info.I'm thinking by late Oct.or Nov.things should become more clear what will happen this winter.Thanks again!

ERN WX said...

The East Coast and OH Valley have been the target of the precip and cool. In winter they will see the snow. The atmosphere remembers patterns too well. Last winter was based off of a nrml NAO and weak Nina.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello ERNWX! How has it been going? I agree! Front after front has been moving through lately.Each one has had plenty of precip.

Joshua Steiner said...

Whoever was anonymous and posted that the Ohio Valley winter would be wet... You can't go about wish-casting... Even in similar patterns in past years (historical analogues), most of them show quite a brutally cold winter but drier than normal conditions across most of the Ohio Valley (with the exception of some years). I, myself, do believe that the Ohio Valley will likely see a cold winter, but precipitation could go either way. It's all variable.. Forecasts may show below normal precipitation for a large region, but when winter comes and due to the variability of storm systems, some smaller regions within the larger region may have seen above normal precipitation. It's all about perception.. Take for instance the winter of 2010-2011, most of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes states saw near or below normal precipitation for the winter, but yet, most meteorologists and people agree that it was a particularly brutal year in terms of snowfall and cold. That is why it does not matter whether precipitation is below normal or not... One storm can make a whole winter season seem incredibly brutal.

WinterStorm said...

Hi Andrew! What do you think for Southeast Michigan? Also, do you think we may be able to get into negative-neutral ENSO by this winter? I was just wondering because this El Nino looks to be in trouble. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Andrew: What do you think this winter will hold for for the DC/Baltimore metropolitan areas? Correct me if I'm wrong but a weak El Nino will give us a better chance at a cold/snowy winter than a La Nada? And if the NAO and AO can stay negative throughout much of the winter, does it really matter? My point is, what should the DC/Baltimore areas look for for a cold/snowy winter? Thanks.

Andrew said...

WinterStorm: It's a little too far out to determine your area- you're in the infamous 'murky-water zone', where things are a bit more unpredictable than other areas.

Anonymous: If the El Nino holds (which isn't looking too sure), then yes. However, a negative NAO will make up.