The image above is observed 70mb stratospheric values, from January 2011 to present. I circled the summer months of 2011 and 2012. If we look at summer 2011, we see the lower stratosphere was below normal. When the lower stratosphere is below normal, it is typical to see a positive NAO, thus above normal temperatures. Sure enough, in the winter of 2011-2012, the stratosphere was well below normal, and temperatures were well above normal.
This summer, we have seen the stratosphere keeping at roughly normal levels- an encouraging sign for the upcoming winter. If one uses the summer months to help determine the winter forecast, like what I observed above with 2011-2012, I would say that the stratosphere appears inclined for a good winter, as far as the El Nino goes for the East Coast.
I will have more information when the Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast is issued at 12:00 PM CT on September 8.
Andrew
4 comments:
EF-0 torn confirmed. Am very busy.
When all the forecasts you can dig up online point to a cold, snowy northeast winter ahead, you have to assume there is something very obvious about this season.
Without and ego clashing going on, I'd put my money on a rough winter ahead.
SVr tomorrow.
Anonymous: I agree- a consensus is always something to consider, no matter the subject.
ERN WX: Tornadoes are always exciting, thanks for sharing! Stay safe tomorrow, and provide reports if you can!!
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