Saturday, October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Discussion (10/27/12)

Life-Threatening Storm Heading For East Coast...

Hurricane Sandy is heading for the East Coast in an event what will likely be one for the record books.

Model track guidance and intensity guidance indicate fluctuating strength in the future and a well-built consensus that landfall could occur just south of the southern New Jersey border.

Sandy is fluctuating in strength at this hour as she moves generally north towards the Mid Atlantic. As Sandy moves north, she will be sucked in to another storm system emerging from the Midwest. As these two combine, a situation scarily similar to the 1991 Perfect Storm will emerge.

The combined storms will then move onshore in a feat accomplished by a very small percentage of storms.

High storm surge and extreme rainfall will hit much of the Northeast. Model runs from today show over 2 feet of rain in VERY ISOLATED areas. Nevertheless, this storm surge and extreme rains will lead to quick and sustained flooding in many areas. Long Island could be flooded, although that is yet to be determined.

High winds, possibly exceeding hurricane force status, will bring down trees and pose a serious threat to property and life. Roof damage and overall structural damage is widely expected.

Snow, up to 12 inches, will strike the Appalachians. Higher totals would not surprise me. Because of the Austen's high winds, whiteout conditions would not surprise me.

This is it. If you live along the New Jersey/New York/Delmarva coastal regions, you need to prepare for a real threat to life and property. This isn't your usual system- this will be much worse.

Next week, I'll have an article out examining the potential for this storm to be included in the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).


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