Superstorm Sandy 9:00 PM CT Update (10/28/12)

Latest water vapor analysis of Sandy shows that an eye is still present, although sustained winds put Sandy at the bare minimum 75 MPH hurricane criteria.

The center of Sandy is pretty much on track with the NHC at this time, although I may be seeing a slight wobble to the east of that forecast point, hence the red circle to the east of the track. I don't anticipate this slight wobble to have a significant effect on eventual landfall- a few miles north might be a consequence of this wobble, but that's about it.

500mb analysis does show that Sandy may be beginning to take on a negative tilt, a consequence of Sandy merging with a second system that will provide the base for this decade's first (and hopefully last) superstorm. This will be significant and lives will be threatened. Here's some words of wisdom from the NWS Mt. Holly office:

My afternoon thoughts still stand, and here's the overall graphic from the afternoon.

Andrew

Mandatory Evacuations - 10/28/12

The following areas are under Mandatory Evacuation orders:


IN NEW JERSEY:
-Islands from Sandy Hook to Cape May
-Areas east of Watson's Creek

IN CONNECTICUT:
-Fairfield
-Bridgeport
-East Haven

IN NEW YORK:
-Low-lying coastal areas in the five boroughs

IN DELAWARE:
-Sussex county
-New Castle county
-Kent county

IN MARYLAND:
-Ocean City

If you are in a mandatory evacuation area, it is advised you heed these warnings and evacuate. Personally, this is ver dangerous and I would evacuate if I were in a mandatory evacuation zone.

Andrew

State of Emergency Declarations - 10/28/12

The following states are under States of Emergency:


-NEW JERSEY
-CONNECTICUT
-NEW YORK
-PENNSYLVANIA
-VIRGINIA
-MARYLAND
-MASSACHUSETTS
-MAINE (limited state of emergency)
-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
-RHODE ISLAND
-DELAWARE

If you are under a state of emergency, prepare for a weather event that could put your property or life in danger. Take all necessary precautions to ensure your safety. If evacuation is recommended, it is advised you heed all government warnings to keep yourself safe. Do not waste time or take chances- this event has the potential to damage property and threaten lives.

Andrew

Historic Superstorm/Sandy Full Discussion (10/28/12)

"This is unlike any storm I have witnessed in the last several years."

Hurricane Sandy is expected to merge with an incoming disturbance currently progressing east across the nation. As this merge occurs, the now-singular storm system will rapidly strengthen and pose life-threatening conditions to much of the nation's population. Let's break it down.

Model guidance suggests a consensus has formed as far as where Sandy will make landfall. The majority of models used in today's latest 12z suite are saying a landfall on the tip of south New Jersey and in the Delmarva area is likely. Considering this consensus has been holding for quite a while now, I have faith in it and believe this is a likely scenario.

Rainfall will be a big problem, especially right along the coast. In much of the northeast quadrant of the US, I am anticipating under an inch of rain with isolated spots breaking that 1 inch barrier. In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, however, 1-2 inches is likely. But it doesn't stop there. The Mid-Atlantic as a whole should surpass the 2 inch mark, and coastal areas in or near the Delmarva region could get as high as 8 inch totals. The real problem comes at the point of landfall, where I believe over 8 inches of rain is likely. Unfortunately, this will lead to flash flooding that will stick around for a while. Because the storm will be pushing water inland, the flooded areas will not be able to get the water out until the storm has moved further inland, a feat that should take a day or two. Then, only time will tell how long flooded neighborhoods will take to be dried out.

This event will have a snowy side as well. As this superstorm moves inland, cold air will be pulled south from Canada in response to such a strong storm. This cold air will sweep into the southwestern flank of the system and penetrate into the heaviest precipitation areas. This will lead to chances of snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, a significant snowfall is likely in the mountainous regions, where some models are showing over 2 feet of snow!! Personally, I believe snow on the order of 6-18 inches is likely, but some spots could break that 2 foot mark.

Our Exclusive Impact Map shows a High Impact event will unfold across the Mid Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast, as the very strong system, combined with storm surge makes for a life threatening event in the pink areas. Enhanced Impact areas have been marked across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as well, where slightly lesser effects of this superstorm will be felt. However, don't let your guard down- this is quite an unpredictable storm.

State of emergencies have been declared, and transportation systems are shutting down. You need to be evacuated if a mandatory evacuation is given. For those of you thinking 'This is just a strong Nor'easter', you are wrong. This is the closest thing to the 1991 Perfect Storm we have seen since 1991. This isn't a time to take chances. The effects will be big and bad, and lives will be at risk.

Andrew

Mandatory Evacuations - 10/27/12

The following regions are under mandatory evacuations:

IN NEW JERSEY:
Islands from Sandy Hook to Cape May
Areas east of Watson's Creek

IN CONNECTICUT:
Fairfield

If you are under a mandatory evacuation order, LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE! This is a serious situation at hand and will threaten lives and property.

Andrew

State of Emergency Declarations - 10/27/12

The following states are under a state of emergency:

-NEW JERSEY
-CONNECTICUT
-NEW YORK
-PENNSYLVANIA
-VIRGINIA
-MARYLAND
-MASSACHUSETTS
-MAINE (limited state of emergency)
-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

If you are under a state of emergency, you are advised to prepare for a property-threatening and life-threatening event. This is SERIOUS!! Monitor all information given by your local and statewide authorities.

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy Discussion (10/27/12)

Life-Threatening Storm Heading For East Coast...

Hurricane Sandy is heading for the East Coast in an event what will likely be one for the record books.

Model track guidance and intensity guidance indicate fluctuating strength in the future and a well-built consensus that landfall could occur just south of the southern New Jersey border.

Sandy is fluctuating in strength at this hour as she moves generally north towards the Mid Atlantic. As Sandy moves north, she will be sucked in to another storm system emerging from the Midwest. As these two combine, a situation scarily similar to the 1991 Perfect Storm will emerge.

The combined storms will then move onshore in a feat accomplished by a very small percentage of storms.

High storm surge and extreme rainfall will hit much of the Northeast. Model runs from today show over 2 feet of rain in VERY ISOLATED areas. Nevertheless, this storm surge and extreme rains will lead to quick and sustained flooding in many areas. Long Island could be flooded, although that is yet to be determined.

High winds, possibly exceeding hurricane force status, will bring down trees and pose a serious threat to property and life. Roof damage and overall structural damage is widely expected.

Snow, up to 12 inches, will strike the Appalachians. Higher totals would not surprise me. Because of the Austen's high winds, whiteout conditions would not surprise me.

This is it. If you live along the New Jersey/New York/Delmarva coastal regions, you need to prepare for a real threat to life and property. This isn't your usual system- this will be much worse.

Next week, I'll have an article out examining the potential for this storm to be included in the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy 11:00 PM Update (10/26/12)

Hurricane Sandy is now on track to hit just south of New Jersey in an event that will prove historic for the region.

Sandy is likely to hit early in the workweek, which may catch many people off guard. Model guidance suggests that this storm may end up lingering around the region, which would provoke sustained flash flooding in the region.

Below, you see the model consensus from the 12z model suite, as well as the 84 hour forecast on the new 0z NAM. On the bottom right, you can see total precipitation that is expressed in values surpassing 100. You can determine the inch value by multiplying the shown value by 0.01 and you can see the total inches of rainfall.

This is getting dangerous. I cannot stress this enough- PREPARE NOW AND EVACUATE IF NECESSARY!!

I will have a morning update tomorrow.

Andrew

State Of Emergency Declarations - 10/26/12

The following states have declared states of emergency in advance of Hurricane Sandy's arrival:

-NEW YORK
-MARYLAND
-PENNSYLVANIA
-VIRGINIA

Residents of these states are advised to prepare for a life-threatening event. Stock up and prepare now for supplies that would enable you to survive at least 3 days without any power.

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy 4:45 PM Update 10/26/12

Sandy remains a hurricane at this hour, although she has weakened since yesterday. Models indicate fluctuations in strength will continue for the next several hours before a more sustained weakening of Sandy occurs.

I made a new Impact Scale below, detailing my latest thoughts. I did this scale on short notice, and had to do this away from my computer, so it does look a bit mediocre. Here's the breakdown.

GREEN: LOW IMPACT
Breezy conditions with precipitation possible. A nuisance event.

YELLOW: MEDIUM IMPACT
Windy, small twigs and unsecured objects may blow around. Heavier precipitation is observed. Situation similar to a summer thunderstorm event.

RED: ENHANCED IMPACT
Very windy. Large branches may break off and property damage may occur. Roofing may become damaged. Unstable structures may collapse. Heavy precipitation may cause sustained minor/moderate flooding.

PINK: MAJOR IMPACT
Extreme winds and precipitation. Sturdy structures at risk of severe damage. Entire trees at risk for severe damage. Sustained flash flooding occurs. Life and property threatened.

Models suggest that Sandy will make landfall near the coastal part of Pennsylvania. Regardless of landfall location, THIS WILL BE BIG. Be prepared for long lasting power outages and a threat to life and property. Be able to sustain yourself for at least 3 days without power.

Next update: Between 7-10 PM CT, most likely in the 8:00 PM CT hour.

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy 2:00 PM Update (10/26/12)

My thoughts from yesterday afternoon still stand: Major Impact situation is unfolding across the coastal regions of the Northeast, where, depending on the strength of Sandy's landfall, winds could surpass hurricane strength.

Here's a region-by-region breakdown for the Northeast:

COASTAL REGIONS (Including Long Island and similar areas)

Winds will likely severely damage trees and property along the coast. Consistent rain will provide a base for SUSTAINED flash flooding. Because land will be covered by water, winds will be enhanced slightly, as winds go faster over water.

INLAND REGIONS (State College, PA and similar regions)

Lesser wind effects will strike, but flooding and consistent, sustained power outages will strike. Trees, houses and other property could be damaged. Life may be threatened.

If you are in the Northeast, you will want to stock up on batteries, flashlights and non-perishable foods and drinks that, if necessary, could sustain you for up to 7 days.

THIS WILL BE MAJOR. BE PREPARED!!

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy 9:30 AM Update (10/26/12)

Global and regional models depicted below show that a consensus has still not yet been reached. However, the general idea of a Northeast landfall appears set in stone.

PERSONAL THOUGHTS
Prepare now. I expect widespread power outages, heavy thunderstorms, flash flooding, SUSTAINED flooding, and tree damage. This, in turn, will cause property damage and a serious threat to life.

TIPS
-Buy batteries and a battery powered radio. This can be used to stay up to date on the latest information.
-Buy food that you can eat in a 7 day period. You will want this in the event a sustained power outage occurs.
-Keep tabs on family members, the elderly, and the disabled.

This will be a dangerous storm. Prepare now to stay as safe as possible.

Andrew

Will Sandy Be A Repeat of the 1991 'Perfect Storm'?

Many in the weather world are asking or being asked if Sandy will turn out to be a repeat of the 1991 Perfect Storm that brought chaos to the entire Northeast. Let's see what similarities they have.

SIMILARITY: Both events involve merging storms.
Both the 1991 Perfect Storm and Hurricane Sandy will/did involve the merging of storm systems. Sandy looks like it will merge with a system that is currently bringing cold air to the Midwest and Plains. This merging will bring Sandy inland.

DIFFERENCE: The number of merging storms is different.
Sandy will merge with one other system. The 1991 Perfect Storm managed to hoard two other systems for itself. In other words, Sandy will have less energy to deal with.

SIMILARITY: Both of these events will have tropical origins.
Sandy is currently a Category 2 hurricane, and will still be tropical before it merges with the other system. Hurricane Grace in 1991 was also a Category 2 hurricane in the northern Atlantic that eventually merged with two other systems.

DIFFERENCE: Hurricane Sandy has much lower pressure.
Hurricane Sandy has pressures as low as a major hurricane (Category 3+), while Grace was a short-lived hurricane. Sandy is stronger, Grace was technically weaker.

SIMILARITY: Both occurred in October.
As eerie as this is, yes, both Grace and Sandy are/were active in late October. What makes this story even eerier is how Sandy should make its landfall on the Northeast on October 30- the same day in 1991 that Grace was absorbed by another system, when the Perfect Storm technically began.

DIFFERENCE: Sandy originated in the Caribbean.
There's a major difference here. Hurricane Sandy originated in the heart of the Caribbean, home to moisture as abundant as water in the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane Grace began in the ocean to the far east of Florida, in waters not nearly as favorable as Sandy.

In short, Sandy and Grace were entirely different, and will end up entirely different. While both tropical and post-tropical systems have their similarities, there's a reason why it was named the Perfect Storm- because it almost never happens. Sandy will be a close rival to the Perfect Storm's make-up, but effects and overall composure of the two are pretty far apart.

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy Full Discussion (10/25/12)

Hurricane Sandy is currently a Category 2 hurricane that is located to the east of Florida at this hour. Satellite imagery indicates that Sandy is a very large storm with a very packed center. However, the southern flank of the system is fairly dry, and I would want to see more enhanced convection in that area to make sure the system sustains itself.

The National Hurricane Center, or NHC, has Sandy moving on a wobbly north track with an eventual curve to the northeast. However, as Sandy moves up the coast, a disturbance located in the eastern North America will drag the system in, causing the two to merge. Because of this merge, Sandy will be directed to the northwest and retrograde (storms moving west in the Northern Hemisphere) into the East Coast, making landfall as a post tropical system.

Models remain fairly confused with this system, although there is a general consensus for Sandy to move in the direction that the National Hurricane Center has Sandy going. There is potential for post-tropical cyclone Tony to grab Sandy and pull her out to sea, but I don't think this will happen and therefore prefer to side with the model guidance of a landfall on the East Coast. Due to the spread in the models when the system makes landfall, things are still a bit unsure as far as who could get snow and who could get the worst winds, but I have put out my best guess at the end of this post.

Rainfall will be a big concern with this system. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, or HPC, is indicating that many areas along the East Coast could get a healthy dose of several inches of rain. The heaviest rains look to be out to sea, where amounts in excess of 7 inches are possible as indicated on the above graphic.

The areas most at risk for snowfall include the Appalachians and part of the Ohio Valley, where the latest ECMWF and GFS have indicated the best chances for snowfall are centered. This risk of snow is moreso centered over the Appalachians, with the Ohio Valley thrown in there with more uncertainty than confidence. Because of the cold air being pulled south by Sandy, the lake effect snow machine should start going over the Michigan and Indiana sides of Lake Michigan. The Upper part of Michigan will also get in on some lake effect snow action.

Winds will be howling with Sandy. As she comes ashore, windy conditions can be expected across much of the Northeast, Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The trouble begins in the Northeast, where some of the larger branches may break as Sandy roars in. Coastal cities in New York and Pennsylvania will suffer the worst winds, as offshore winds come on land and worsen the wind crisis. Entire trees will be threatened by these winds.

On The Weather Centre's Exclusive Impact Scale, I believe that only the Northeast and Mid Atlantic stand a chance at some enhanced impacts or major impacts on this scale, meaning property will be at risk and travel is likely to be disrupted. In areas immediately along shore, there will be 'Major Impacts', meaning significant travel disruptions and overall service disruptions are expected. Life and property will be at risk, mainly from winds and possible severe weather.

PERSONAL THOUGHTS

This storm will be a doozy. If I lived in the 'Major Impacts' area, I would want to stock up at the supermarket for supplies, as power is more than likely going to fail in at least some of the 'Enhanced Impacts' zone. Also, if you have any old or ailing trees in your neighborhood, keep an eye on them. Make sure your property is not in harms way, as trees of all ages may be damaged. Keep tabs on the elderly, those with disabilities, and those who, for some reason, need electricity in their lives (i.e. medical, for pets, etc.), as these people will be most prone to bearing the brunt of the storm's effects.

Andrew

Hurricane Sandy Staring Down East Coast

It should be noted that some information posted here is from yesterday's Sandy update. I repost it only because the information is still valid.

Tropical Storm Sandy has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane as she moves a steady northbound track at this hour. Sandy has prompted hurricane warnings to be issued for much of the western Caribbean, with Florida also getting into the action. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the eastern coast of Florida, with a tropical storm watch surrounding that warning. With all the controversy swirling around Sandy, I still maintain my case that Sandy will pose a threat to the East Coast, and here's why:

The first thing we must examine is teleconnections. Above is a multi-model display of the 0z models and ensembles' predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, has two phases: positive and negative. In the negative phase, a colder and stormier pattern is encouraged over the East US as the jet stream dips south. In the positive phase, warm conditions can be found in the East.

Models are forecasting the NAO to stay well in negative territory, possibly well into November, but that's another story. The key piece is that the NAO will be extremely negative from now until October 27. Because teleconnections observations and their effects are delayed (the atmosphere doesn't work that fast), we want a good 3 day lag of negative NAO values before the storm strikes to show that the NAO would support such a possibility of an East Coast threat. Looking at the NAO forecasts, there is a good consensus on such a negative period through Halloween, which will enable the jet stream to dip in a negative NAO pattern. This provides a base for a theory on an East Coast threat.

Shown above are the ECMWF Ensembles on top and the GFS Ensembles on the bottom. Both are from today's 12z model suite. As you can see, both indicate that a strong system will hit the Mid Atlantic in the days leading up to Halloween. The two ensemble sets are pretty similar in forecasts- both have a strong storm crashing into the Mid Atlantic, and this situation would indeed pull down very cold air as the GFS ensembles depict on the lower image.

I believe that an ensemble set always triumphs over a single model. Why? Well, imagine the ECMWF model. It's a great model, very reliable, a very good model overall. Now imagine that same ECMWF model, but now there's 52 of them, combined into one overall forecast. It sounds too good to be true, almost like a sure-fire forecast (for the record, that's nearly impossible, no matter the model). That sums up what the ECMWF ensemble system is. The same goes for how the GFS Ensemble system works.


As the storm moves north (likely influenced by both the strong cyclone to the northeast and the advancing disturbance to the west), it has two options, which is the key player that is confusing the models. Here is a breakdown of each option.

Option 1: The storm moves north and is coaxed east by the strong disturbance located to the northeast in the image above. The storm keeps moving northeast and does not affect the US mainland.

Option 2: The storm moves north, but is more influenced by the disturbance in the Ohio Valley. The Fujiwhara Effect comes into play, and Sandy cycles to the west to orbit with the incoming disturbance over the Ohio Valley. This cycling persuades Sandy to move towards the US and make landfall. Personally, at this point in time, I am favoring Option 2.


I've run over the model forecasts and weather theories to give my first (but certainly not last) forecast on Sandy. Keep in mind that she will be EXTRATROPICAL (not a hurricane, but a strong coastal storm like the ones seen in winter). However, this does not mean that the tornado threat will be nil- such a post-tropical cyclone can definitely produce some tornadic activity.

DISCLAIMER: These are my own personal thoughts and are subject to major change in the next several days.
DO NOT use this information in place of official government weather information.

Andrew