Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Model Ensembles Prefer East Coast Landfall


Above, you see the GFS Ensembles on top and the ECMWF Ensembles on bottom, forecasting MSLP values in the Atlantic. They are both valid for 7 days from now.

The ECMWF Ensembles combine to believe that a strong system will make landfall in the Mid-Atlantic, with heavy winds and rain following along. I do not doubt the presence of some snow in the Ohio Valley from this system as well if the ensembles give enough cold air to the west of the original landfall.

The GFS Ensembles are even stronger and also hit the Northeast with Sandy at a strength in the 980's, indicating that the system looks to be pretty strong. It should be noted that for both sets of ensembles, some members are stronger than this, and some members are weaker than the forecasts above. This is a mean (average) of all of the ensembles within the GFS' base or the ECMWF's base.

I show you these forecasts because the models themselves may as well be as good as a life raft in the desert- sometimes it's practical (for shelter), sometimes it's not (there are no oceans in the desert). I think it's time to take a few steps back and see what the ensembles have to offer, because they are the best bet at this long range forecasting of a tropical cyclone.

Andrew

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Andrew, this is not Sandy that you are seeing. It truly is a massive extra-tropical storm system that will merge with Sandy. Sandy is going to dye off, but her remnants will go into another storm. No areas are at risk of a tropical storm impacting them in the US.
http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2012/10/24/latest-80-degree-temp-in-13-years-possible-wednesday-making-this-only-the-ninth-year-of-the-past-142-to-see-such-warmth-so-late-in-the-season/
Skilling compares it to the Perfet Storm. If you look at the NHC, you can see that they dissipate Sandy.

Anonymous said...

This is possibly the most idiotic thing I've ever heard from someone. Listen as four year student meteorologists, let us "weatherman" worry about the weather and u stick to your day job

Andrew said...

I'm appalled someone like you could be so disrespectful in a life-threatening event. If you think I'm the one in the wrong here, try calming down and actually seeing what you commented.

mike paulocsak said...

HEY ANONYMOUS.IF YOU DON'T LIKE HIS POSTS ON HERE,JUST IGNORE THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HE TRIES HIS BEST TO KEEP US INFORMED WHAT MAY HAPPEN.ANOTHER WORDS,KEEP YOU RUDE COMMENTS TO YOURSELF.SORRY ANDREW FOR THE ANGRY POST.I DON'T CARE FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE SO RUDE.

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew, You do a great job on here. Dont pay attention to idiot people that have no weather back ground at all. For anonymous info weather channel itself doesnt have sandy dying out. Your fantastic at what you do. Haters will hate. Keep up good work.

Maine man said...

I watched HM's video on the Accu weather and I believe he said that Sandy will be whipped out to sea but another storm was too form on the coast and that storm might be getting some moisture from Sandy to enhance it. I'm no weather man but like to hear all sides of the nice people here in this format. Thank you Andrew for your hard work.

Chris said...

Anonymous #2 - What you said is probably the most idiotic thing I have ever heard. Going to blogs and posting crap is probably the second. And your grammar is probably the third.

mike paulocsak said...

Real weather guys do not post comments like the annonymous did.They have more sense then that.