Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Long Range Lookout: ECMWF Late Fall-Early Winter 2012 Forecast

This is the ECMWF's Late Fall-Early Winter 2012 Forecast as interpreted by The Weather Centre. I will not provide the actual image out of copyright concerns.

The ECMWF's climate model is projecting a big swath of the Plains, Midwest and Rockies to be in a slightly cooler than normal state in this timeframe. No frigid temperature anomalies are expected to arise, although such a potential would be maximized in the Southwest states (New Mexico into Arizona). The Northeast and Southwest are portrayed as areas with above normal temperatures, the Northeast bearing the warmer brunt of the two.

As for precipitation, the ECMWF cites a below normal precipitation area across the meeting ground between the Northwest and Southwest. A chance of below normal precipitation is forecasted across parts of the Gulf Coast, but other than that, the ECMWF is relatively not concerned with the rest of the nation as far as precipitation anomalies go.

Keep in mind these forecasts are from one model of at least a few dozen- one fish in a never-ending sea, so to speak. So don't lose all hope just because one model says little precipitation is forecasted.



dillon said...

was bout to say lol..this seems odd compared to ur's.even tho..NOAA's prediction is WAY dif then ur's

Aran Jacobs said...

On Accuweather for Valparaiso Indiana It says Ice and for the night snow/rain mix.What do you think?

KakHome said...

Is this from the monthlies first released on the 8th of each month, or is it a more recent Euro update (which in such a case I wasn't aware that these seasonal outlooks are produced any more than once each month)? Also is Cleveland just far enough west to call near normal not above?

I sent a message as Hertz on AccuWeather to cover questions also. Response would be much appreciated. :-)