The circled area is something I am closely watching- and is tied to a new theory I am working on. This disturbance is very strong, and is likely to end up this strong despite the model showing this forecast in the long range. However, notice the swath of blue across the Southern Plains. This is a high pressure ridge that will keep this disturbance from moving east.
Notice the disturbance to the west of Washington and Oregon. This disturbance should move southeast and give the main disturbance the kick it needs to shove itself east. This means that we should be seeing a good severe weather event across the Southern Plains and probably into the Southeast.
A little more on that disturbance to the west of Washington and Oregon- the way the 500mb flow is depicted, this system should crash into northern California. In the wake of a strong disturbance in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, this area of low pressure should move east and may very well provide an opportunity to let some flakes fly in portions of the Midwest. The models will change, but that is what I am seeing at the moment.