Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Updated Snowfall Forecast for 2012-2013 Winter

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. The Final 2012-2013 Winter Forecast still stands- this is an update on my thoughts but is NOT composed of my official thoughts... yet.


This is an updated forecast of what I am expecting in terms of snowfall this winter. Please note that this forecast does not have as much research behind it as our Final Winter Forecast, so use at your own risk.

I am forecasting above normal snowfall for much of the Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast, with the core of the snow hitting the Midwest and Plains. Here's the lowdown on why:

1) Lezak Recurring Cycle. As I posted in this recent post, there has been a favoring of precipitation over the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. This means that there should be quite an active period for those regions at least twice this winter, possibly bringing some very heavy snows with them. Additionally, the presence of cold air that may be tied into the LRC would enhance snowfall potential over these regions.

2) Possible Rebounding La Nina. As I posted today at this link, there is a new trend of cool water anomalies just off the coast of South America and likely associated with the ENSO pattern. A La Nina favors the Midwest and Ohio Valley for snowfall. Based on how global wind patterns have been characteristic of a La Nina recently, it is possible we could see La Nina effects in the USA as well, hence the 'core of snow' region lodged in the mentioned areas.

3) No More El Nino. The El Nino is gone, and there are very little effects of an El Nino worldwide. Because an El Nino favors the East Coast for snowfall, this reduces the chances for above normal snow.

I would like to remind everyone that THIS IS AN UPDATE and DOES NOT RESEMBLE my OFFICIAL THOUGHTS. My official thoughts remain in the Final 2012-2013 Winter Forecast. I will have my latest official thoughts out by the end of this month.

Andrew

17 comments:

ERN WX said...

The LRC is dictated by the NAO and PNA. With the blocking that has been evident, the East Coast should be the target. The map just appears to assume that the tracks stay the same. The LRC is indeed real, just impacted by other things.

Anthony said...

EXACTLY! The East coat should be the main target for this winter.

hh8004 said...

You need to be more decisive in your forecasts. Be sure to take into account the warm anomalies located in the western equatorial pacific as well as arctic sea ice which all point towards cold and snowy in the east. Also, nature IS the greatest indicator and the squirrels are going crazy this year in the east which suggests cold and snow.

Andrew said...

ERN WX: The LRC is not dictated by any index- it is its own beast. While its factors are indeed affected by these indices, the pattern itself is not changed (i.e. cycle length).

hh8004: Nino region 4 is commonly false. It is evident we are in a neutral ENSO position and may be sliding into a Nina based on more reliable Nino region anomalies.

To all: The NAO will assist in these storms being further directed into the East. However, it will not be negative all the time.

mike paulocsak said...

What about the Ohio Valley? It has been the wettest location in the eastern half of the country lately! Storm system after storm system has been going through.ASlso the east coast has been pretty soggy lately.Im no genius in weather forecasting,but if the LRC rings true,the Ohio Valley and east coast should be both targets for heavy snowfall.

mike paulocsak said...

I agree with hh8004 about the squirrels.The are running around my house like maniacs collecting acorns.They know something that we may not know.

sb_wx said...

I am certain that this winter will hold above average snowfall for the East Coast. If you look at the AMO it is warming. When the AMO warms you can bet your money that you will see a negative NAO and a negative AO. And yes at times the NAO could go neutral, but I do not see any evidence that the NAO is going positive. Have you seen the most recent JAMSTEC model?? That model nailed last year right on the head. Maybe you should give that a glance.And yes we are going to see a neutral winter. But that will have no impact on the East Coast. Please get your information together.

Andrew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andrew said...

That is why I redid the map to include the Ohio Valley and East Coast.

hh8004 said...

I am curious as to why you have the core of the snow inland enough to imply that the apps runner storm track will be the predominant track? I thought there was supposed to be bitter cold in the northeast which would suppress the storm track further offshore?

Randall said...

Its gonna be a tricky winter. Good work tho Andrew give him credit hes working hard

Anonymous said...

I agree with the last comment.

mike paulocsak said...

Agreed Randall.He always does a tremendous job !!!!!!

ERN WX said...

Sorry about not being clear with my statement, I mean the NAO controls the track, that is it. Map looks better.

ERN WX said...

Andrew, this new map is very interesting to me. There is a theory that this winter will be snowiest for the Midwest early. Then the East and OH Valley get pounded Jan. and Feb. This map fits that idea perfectly. Keep the great work coming!!! I agree the NAO WILL NOT be - all winter. It will have an impact with the LRC like last year. I.e.Oct snowstorm for East Coast, later no real snow.

Anonymous said...

what does this mean for southern colorado snowfall?

Anonymous said...

so will philly get hit hard this winter or will alot of the storm systems go to our nowthwest