But before we sort this all out, what is the LRC?
The Lezak Recurring Cycle is:
•A weather pattern that sets up every year.
•This pattern is NEVER THE SAME from year to year.
•Pattern sets up in late fall-early winter.
•The LRC cycles (repeats) through the winter and spring from the original pattern in the fall.
•Each cycle is 40-60 days.
For example, if a system were to go through the Midwest in mid October and brought a lot of rain to the region, you might see the storm again in December (40-60 days later) in the Midwest again with a lot of precipitation. However, strength and track varies with each cycle.
Looking at the graphic above, we see a lot of lines going through the Plains and Midwest. This correlates well with the precipitation being centered in the southern Plains and Midwest. If we put the LRC to use in this 30 day observation, one would think that the Midwest and Plains will bear the brunt of storms this winter.
And here's the thing- I believe it.
A consistent positive Pacific-North American (PNA) phase makes for a wet and stormy Midwest and Northeast. The PNA was observed to be variable in the last month, but a consistent negative North American Oscillation (NAO) changed the jet stream to give a lot of cold to the East US. If we put these two together, we get a wet, cold East US.
Things are still developing, but this is a great sign for those wishing for a snowy winter in the Midwest and Plains.