Friday, November 9, 2012

Siberia Endorsing Back-Loaded Winter Theory

Observed snow cover in Siberia during the month of October is supporting the idea of a back-loaded winter, something many winter weather lovers out there are dreading.

Something forecasters use in the fall months to help predict the upcoming winter is indeed Siberia. In October, the anomaly of snow cover over the region has been proven to correlate with observed Arctic Oscillation anomalies in the following winter. For example, if the month of October held a very below normal snow cover situation for Siberia, the Arctic Oscillation would most likely be on the positive side (warmer weather) for the winter.

If we apply that rule to the observed October 2012 snow cover, here is what I find:

-Generally warm start to winter.
-Slight improvement through Nov., Dec.
-Cooler towards January.
-Brutal cold in January-February.

Whether this happens remains to be seen, but Siberia is known to stick to its guns with this theory, so the above conclusions could very well verify.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Okay so I have been following your posts and you have been encouraged by the rapid increase in snow cover in Siberia becaues of what happened in Oct. Now you are telling us that winter will be delayed because the snow didn't start until the middle of Siberia. When should the snow have started to give us a decent winter???? These rules sound like Milton Bradely company made them up.