Sunday, November 4, 2012

What Are The Models Saying This Winter? Part 4

The fourth part of the model forecasts for this winter has been made for your viewing pleasure. Let's get into it.


These are precipitation anomalies (top) and temperature anomalies (bottom) for the winter period from the COLA model. I don't have much information to work with on this model, so let's just see what it says. The images to the right of each colored picture shows 'skill areas', or where the model is most confident in its forecasts where color is shown. Areas with no color indicate lower confidence. Precipitation forecasts from the COLA model show a dry West Coast and wet Southeast, typical of an El Nino. The skill map is favoring the wet Southeast idea, again signifying an emerging El Nino. Despite this, I find that the El Nino is still not cooperating with the atmosphere, which refuses to recognize the presence of an El Nino. In fact, more La Nina signs are shown across the globe than signals of an El Nino. For temperature, a warm Alaska and northern Canada is forecasted, while southern Canada and much of the Lower 48 are in well below normal areas. Despite such large bodies of cold and warm forecasts, the COLA model only puts investments in the northeastern Canada's and the Great Lakes warmth, with a bit of confidence in the Plains' cool down.
This does bode well with the GFDL's temperature forecast in the last part of the model displays for this winter. That said, my confidence in such an event happening rises. However, recent trends are showing a good cool down, followed by a strong warm-up. This could dramatically alter the average temperatures for the winter once things are all set and done.


This is the CCM3 model's precipitation (top) and temperature (bottom) forecasts for the winter months. As in the images above, the right-hand pictures are of skill maps, aka where the models are most confident in their forecasts. The CCM3 prefers a slightly dry West Coast and pretty dry Plains area for the winter, not handing out any above average precipitation anomalies. The skill maps include a dry West Coast, and that's about it. For temperatures, the CCM3 displays a cooler than normal West Coast and Alaskan area, while the Northeast and Ohio Valley regions are above normal. The skill map keeps the above normal Northeast in its sight.
I'm not supportive of this forecast. I haven't really looked in to how good this model actually is, but that's not the main point. The main point is that this model doesn't fall in place with the others, whether it be precipitation or temperature. This model keeps the Alaskan/Canadian regions very cold, which typically triggers a big warm-up across the East. However, this model keeps only a part of the nation warm. I don't like this forecast one bit.

Keep your eyes out for more 'What Are The Models Saying This Winter?' posts!

Andrew

1 comment:

KakHome said...

I have to ask - can you point me to where you're getting all these outlooks from? I know of only these two place:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/model_seasanom_body_alt.shtml (Not every model you have referenced is here, but some are.)

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=584&mode=2&cached=true (I think every model you referenced is either here and/or at the previous link, so far.)

Any other sites you're using?