Wednesday, January 30, 2013

February 14-16 Potential Winter Storm

If you're not into repeating patterns, this post is not for you. If you want snow, read on.

I am watching closely for the potential of a winter storm from the 14th of February to the 16th; these dates are very fluid.

The reason I post about this long range potential is because of a repeating pattern called the Lezak Recurring Cycle. Every fall, this pattern sets up and repeats itself every 40-60 days. That cycle length varies from year to year. This year's length if 53 days. If we go back from February 14-16, we arrive around the December 25-26 timeframe. If we take a look at the 500mb chart from December 26th (pictured above), we can see a storm system impacting the southern Midwest, spreading precipitation throughout the region. The Midwest and Ohio Valley would be impacted by this storm if it follows the same track as the December 25 storm did. Looking ahead to the last days of December, this storm then progressed to the Northeast. Could we see that region impacted by this system? That's not clear right now. The reason is that February may not feature as much high latitude blocking as previously thought. If this blocking does not appear near Greenland, the atmospheric pattern would not be favorable for coastal storms, and then this storm track may take a more inland pattern.

But again, this is based off the LRC pattern and does have bust (failure) potential. I post about it because this pattern has fared well this winter, and should perform well as the winter progresses.


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