Wednesday, January 30, 2013

February 18-19 Potential Winter Storm

I am watching the timeframe of mid to late February for some wintry weather across parts of the nation.

The reason I post about this long range potential is because of a repeating pattern called the Lezak Recurring Cycle. Every fall, this pattern sets up and repeats itself every 40-60 days. That cycle length varies from year to year. This year's length is 53 days. If we go back from February 18-19, we find ourselves at the very last days of December. Looking at the 500mb map for December 29 (top image), we see a couple bumps in the contour lines, displaying low pressure systems. This could indeed produce some wintry weather within the Midwest and Great Lakes. A day later, on December 30th (bottom image), we see that the storm has shot offshore and is now impacting the Northeast.

This storm will depend on the atmospheric pattern that is in place when the system comes through. Looking at some very long range indicators, I see that this storm would indeed favor the Midwest and Ohio Valley for wintry weather. However, a lack of high pressure over Greenland could make for a more inland track that may promote more wintry weather for the Upper Midwest rather than the lower Midwest, but that is all TBD.



Anonymous said...

Whats the ssw update very interested about details

Eric said...

@ Anonymous
Andrew should mention something about the new stratospheric warming event taking place from 70-100 millibars in the lower stratosphere, which is much more conducive for blocking at the 500 millibar level near the pole.

Josh Adams said...

I think this event is way to far out to be making any impressions on, i like the update and optimism, but i just think this goes slightly too far out of range. still, good post.