Wednesday, January 30, 2013

February 9-12 Potential Winter Storm

There is increasing potential for a winter storm occurring between the 8th and 12th of February.

The GFS model has been continuously hinting at a storm system ejecting from the Plains around the 9th of February and moving east. As it does so, the storm rides along the freezing line, which is shown above in the southernmost dashed blue line. As the GFS model forecasts above, the storm produces abundant snow across the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. Previous forecasts have shown accumulating snow to occur in these areas, although exact amounts are to be determined.


The reason I post about this long range potential is because of a repeating pattern called the Lezak Recurring Cycle. Every fall, this pattern sets up and repeats itself every 40-60 days. That cycle length varies from year to year. This year's length if 53 days. If we go back 53 to 54 days from February 11th or so, we find ourselves with a very similar piece of energy in the Plains. No doubt that the LRC is indeed behind this, and its support is a big part of why I am posting about it. I find that there could be low pressure along the West Coast, something that could push this storm more towards the Plains, once again shafting the lower Great Lakes in favor of the Upper Midwest. However, if the storm adheres to the LRC pattern, cities like snow-starved Chicago could see some snowfall out of this, but again, the specifics are TBD.

Andrew

1 comment:

Jeremy S. said...

No snow for Baltimore?! *Sigh*