Tuesday, January 29, 2013

January 29 Severe Weather Event -- Updated 4:00 PM

Moderate risk continues to be in effect for Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.

As of 4:00 PM CT... strong thunderstorms were ongoing across the Plains into the Midwest, with severe weather warnings beginning to be issued as the storms move into a more favorable environment. Special noontime sounding from southern Missouri shows differing wind speeds at different levels, consistent with observed strong wind shearing in the same areas. Analog comparisons to similar soundings reveal at least one tornado did occur in a similar situation. Surface helicity observed to be quite strong, would expect an increasing tornado threat as the night goes on. However, an already-established linear severe weather event will make it hard for stronger tornadoes to evolve, hence the extreme damaging wind concern. Current lower level wind forecast indicates strong winds of over 50 knots. I anticipate these winds to increase dramatically as the evening wears on in response to the nocturnal lower level jet stream mixing with these thunderstorms and really firing them up. By that time, the damaging wind threat will take center stage, enabling many n the moderate risk area to achieve warning-criteria wind speeds.

Today is indeed a Critical Storm Action Day. All resources are now devoted to the severe weather situation, and no posts unrelated to the severe weather situation will be published.

Next update will be at approx. 5:30 PM CT



Anonymous said...

Tomorrow might be upgraded to mdt for TN, AL, and GA. Today there was a short lived discreet supercell in AR. It did drop a tornado. Very isolated now.

Anonymous said...

Central Illinois update (just to show progression Andrew!)I'm not a person who could even be considered an armchair meterologist (the graphs and other programs confuse me). But I figured a little bit of play by play may be interesting to see how it all pans out yea?

The National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for several Central Illinois counties that expired at 6 pm CST, however there is still a flood watch for portions of Cetranl Illinois, East Central Illinois, and Southeast Illinois. The NWS is also keeping weather spotters on notice that there might need to be activation especially east of the Illinois River.

There had been several Tornado Watches that had been in effect from what I had been told/saw (though I can't remember where they were) in Central Illinois.

In my neck of the woods here in Central Illinois they're still forecasting for thunderstorms and lots of wind (11 - 20 MPH with gusts as high as 26 MPH)with a low of around 44 degrees., but not much in the way of measurable percepitation. No doubt that will be changing. The current temp is 54 degrees with a windchill sitting at a balmy 50 degrees.

So far there hasn't been much 'action' per se, but I'll be totally honest with this, I'd rather not see much 'action'. Where I live the streets tend to flood very easily, as well as my yard.

But even as I'm typing this up, I can hear rain hitting the window, and the wind starting....

So much for my 'rather not see much action' statement!

Anonymous said...

Central Illinois Update #2

Floodwatch still remains in effect for several counties in Central Illinois until 6 am Wednesday morning. Current temperature is holding at a balmy 52 degrees with no windchill present at the moment. The low is meant to be at 44 degrees, but I am wondering if we're going to see it.

Winds haven't been very high as far as I can tell/hear but then again sometimes I am oblivious. They are now calling for winds between 8 - 10 mph with it gusting up to 15 mph.

There has been enough rain that noticeable flodding has occurred in my town, and especially in my yard. 95% humidity at the moment, and you can definitely tell. It is very warm and muggy for a January night. Weather Channel is reporting .61 inches for preciptation so far. And as it's only been a few hours since this rain started (and they had no recorded percip before, this is actually a really good downfall imho).

There was significant thunder and lightening earlier, however that seems to have tapered off.

Now in my neck of the woods they are forecasting a possibility of rain turning to snow tomorrow. Due to the sogginess of the ground, I am going to say that I doubt it will stick ( I hope Mother Nature proves me wrong).

So far the storm has been impressive, not as massive as I had originally thought it would be, but you can definitely tell that nastiness passed through.

So there we have the progression so far. We'll see if there's anything of note tomorrow when I wake up.

Anonymous said...

Sadly a man perished in TN while heading for shelter. Seems TN received worst damage. Reports of homes destroyed by just straight line winds.

Anonymous said...

GA had a killer(1 life) tornado today in the NW part. I noticed several discreet supercells. Nothing cyclic so far or long track. This setup would be much worse if more shear and instability were in play and proportionate.

Anonymous said...

This just sucks. -_- I live in the piedmont area of virginia and everytime I hope for a storm the forecast is always wrong. Yesterday it said they would start at 3:00 EST. Right now its 5:00 EST and they arent forecasted to start until 10:00 and it only lasts for 1 hour! I don't wanna stay up bcause I have school. How come whenever I hope for storms it never happens. Whats are chance for a t-storm?

Anonymous said...

The storms seem to be developing close to D.C. They just issued a tornado watch that includes D.C., Baltimore, and Richmond. Nothing seems to be rotating... But if you look in North Carolina and below rotations everywhere. Im sure there will be some in Virginia, but not nearly as much as there has been in Georgia and Tennesee.