Above, the mean sea level pressure forecast is shown for February 12th. The synoptic overview is very stagnant, with strong high pressure in place across the nation. A large swath of modest low pressure is present north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Gulf of Mexico. This is the storm system we are watching for this event. To be perfectly honest, the prized Nor'easter track is quite nearly the only option this storm has. You have two strong high pressure masses that are essentially rolling out the red carpet between them. With strong high pressure over land and equally strong high pressure out to sea, any storm systems are easily persuaded into going up the East Coast.
I need to see multiple runs of the ECMWF in coming days to see if this event is still a go in the model's eyes, because right now, there is little support in other models and ensembles for an event of this magnitude to happen. I'm very on-edge about the lack of blocking high pressure over Greenland; I really want to see more enthusiastic high pressure over that land mass before I can look more positively at this storm's prospects. I would also like to see less of that Rex Block set-up; that puts me at an uneasiness I need to settle before I go ahead with more confidence on this event's potential.