Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Valentine's Day Potential Significant Nor'easter

There is potential for a significant Nor'easter that would hit the Northeast on Valentine's Day.

The GFS model is predicting a storm system to ride the Southern US and shoot north along the East Coast, gaining strength as it does so from the Atlantic Ocean. This system would most likely be riding on an increasingly-strengthening subtropical jet stream, which does hold its domain in the Southern US and is commonly the preferred jet stream that produces Nor'easters. Global wind observations and torque anomalies tell me that this is indeed a potential significant storm system, if the energy can flow into the subtropical jet stream (STJ) and the stream can cooperate to send the system into the Northeast.

48 hour snowfall forecasts from the same GFS model run show as much as 18 inches of snow hitting central New York as a result of this event. If you do the math, that's just under a fourth of an inch per hour if the snow fell continuously. The more likely scenario would be very heavy snow falling in a relatively short period of time; snow does not tend to keep to a constant track of 'x' inches per hour.

This system has been showing up for a while now, and must be watched very carefully. The presence of an enhanced subtropical jet stream and a more active period incoming as the Rex Block places low pressure in the Southwest does provide chances for possibly significant snow in the US.



Alicia said...

Hey Andrew!
Great post! I hope this storm comes to fruition. Its always fun to watch big storms hit big cities.
On a side not though, could you give any insight that is furthur down the line maybe around the 18/19th. Thanks!
Also, are there any pattern updates coming up? I have been hearing many conflicting reports saying that it is going to be a warm ending to the month while others say its going to be cold

Thanks Andrew! Great work

Babsie said...

No one else is mentioning this storm yet. Hmmmm!

Anonymous said...

GFS shows another strong system off n atlantic at end of month. PA can be under 2 feet. Also, the central plains may have system that can drop snow in Kansas City, Topeka, maybe Ohama, and Dodge City. Snow wont stay in Dodge but the snow in other cities may stay for days, especially 6-8".

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see what this means for the Ohio Valley!

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see what this means for the Ohio Valley!