The image above shows tropical cyclone probabilities for May 29th across the globe. Areas with warm colors indicate an increased risk of formation. This forecast, created by the University of Albany's Paul Roundy, shows the increased probabilities off the western coast of Mexico. June 1st is the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season, while May 15th signals the beginning of the tropical season in the East Pacific. It is not uncommon to see a tropical season get off to a rather quick start, and does not necessarily mean a more active year. As of now, it appears that the probabilities for tropical cyclone formation begin to increase going into the last week of May. I have reviewed many forecasts from this source over the last few weeks, and have found them to be rather consistent. If this does pan out, folks from Acapulco to La Pez may want to watch the tropics around the start of June to see if any trouble is brewing.
I will have more on this potential as it develops throughout the next couple of weeks.
Andrew
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