Saturday, December 21, 2013

January 2-6 Potentially Significant Winter Storm

I'm looking at the January 2-6 period for a potentially significant winter storm.

ECMWF Ensemble 500mb height anomaly forecast for December 28

GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly forecast for December 27
Global ensemble guidance is in good agreement that an anomalously strong storm will push through Japan in the two or three days after Christmas. The GFS Ensembles push the energy out of Japan 12 hours quicker than the European ensembles, but the main point right now is that there very well could be another significant storm system pushing through East Asia. Using the 6-10 day correlation between East Asian weather and United States weather, I am monitoring the nation for another potentially significant winter storm. I say it could be significant, because the East Asian system looks to be strong. Thus, the system in the US has a good chance of being strong around the January 2-6 period.

The jet stream pattern from the ECMWF ensemble set leading up to the storm looks very interesting. We see the two branches of the jet stream separating over the northeast Pacific, leading to ridging in those waters and in the West Coast. We then see the two branches merge again over the East US, which tells me this might be an East Coast storm.



Teleconnections don't look to be too favorable for an East Coast snowstorm, with ridging continuing across the Southeast thanks to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This Southeast ridging pattern is confirmed with the projected negative Pacific North American (PNA) index. Both of these lead me to believe that while an East Coast storm would appear possible based on the jet stream pattern above, I would expect the pattern to be relatively similar to the one currently in place across the nation. That would mean this potentially significant storm may affect the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes again, in relatively similar fashion to the December 20-23 winter storm.

The West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are projected to be negative during this timeframe, meaning cold air could be more prevalent than what we are seeing right now. While cold air availability is a case-by-case basis for winter storms, this upcoming potentially significant winter storm should have at least some base of cold air to work with, especially if the -WPO and -EPO cooperate as they should.

Andrew

13 comments:

Shawn said...

This is another wonderful blog post Andrew! Is there a possibility that this next storm could go quite a bit further south putting areas like central/east central Missouri in the heaviest snow bands?

And do you think this storm will be even stronger than this one especially on the coldest side of the storm?

Anonymous said...

Is there a chance the Southeast could see some snow?

Anonymous said...

Yes, we are over due in St. Louis county. There is something with storms as they approach this specific area- they split, die off, veer north or south, then quite often regroup again..

Hunter Eastin said...

Do you know if there is any possibility that this ridging over the southeast could weaken enough to allow a winter storm to come through before winter ends? (Maybe hitting East Tennessee?)

Anonymous said...

Meaning this storm may sweep oregon coast again? Before heading east?

Anonymous said...

I don't know if I could psyche myself for another roller coaster ride. That last storm has to be what meteorologists live for, but for me Andrew please just give me an old fashioned blizzard in Chicago Metro. I like when everything comes to a grinding halt and you can just enjoy the weather. I'm hoping this one has more cold air to work with and a slightly southeast track.:)

Armando Salvadore said...

Great blog andrew nicely done. Just putting it out there that it seems in distant future specifically days 8-14 it seems cold it reloading, ridging in northwest pacific (-epo) which seems to "hook" over the top with siberian ridge trapping pv. Then a piece looks to come down like over lakes, which would suppress that storm and keep it from heading toward midwest. Much can happen though because of the uncertainty, plus at same time mjo heading into fav phases for east. Not too sure of blocking, but much at the table here.

Cameron Jourdan Fry said...

I thought the AO/NAO was starting to trend towards negative/neutral territory respectively? I sure hope the Ohio/Mississippi River valleys can cash in this go around!

Anonymous said...

i really like this blog but here lately it seems like a lot of questions dont get answered.
nothing personal i know there is a lot of research that goes into the posts you do but where i was going i guess was like last winter there was others who stepped in and offered answers to some of the questions posted.
i think there were some other
"weathermen" that commented here
anyway i really enjoy the advance notices you provide here
keep up the good work

roadruner said...

Kansas city was to get 5-8 inches and we only got 2 if that. That is the second winter storm warning that really never happened. We are just sitting in front of the window saying "where did it all go" maybe next time. I get together with 2 other guys to watch the radar when any storm is in the area. Keep the Kansas city area in the loop we watch your blogs alot.

Frank-o said...

Here in North Carolina we are running 20 degrees to 30 degreess above "normal".....We have set records for "Warmth".... "What really is "NORMAL" any more.....Here in the NorthWestern Mountains of N.C.....it is just another very boring winter....and it is really starting to look like a "Snowless" winter....which will be yet another record....

Anonymous said...

Dream on people, dream on!

mattzweck said...

I wish we could.get some rain out here in the south West it's too dry.