March 24, 2015 Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe weather outlook for March 24th, 2015.

SPC

The Storm Prediction Center is expecting potential severe weather to develop in much of Missouri, northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, eastern Kansas, southern Iowa, and extreme western Illinois. The current risk is listed as a Slight Risk, which is not a significant threat outlook, but should be monitored.

Analysis

WPC forecast, valid Wednesday, March 24th

The severe weather set-up will include a strong low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest. A warm front well displaced from the severe weather outlook area (shown in Michigan and Ohio above) will allow for a narrow corridor of potentially severe weather to develop. These storms should develop along the cold front that will shift eastward through the area. But is this risk actually legitimate?

COD

The above image shows projected radar reflectivity at 7 AM Central Time on Tuesday. We see a large complex of showers and thunderstorms moving across the corridor highlighted for severe weather on this day. This ongoing complex likely will hinder any severe weather prospects for later on in the day, which would end up ruining this severe weather chance. The best risk for severe weather is likely with that morning's band of showers and storms, portrayed in Missouri and southern Iowa on this NAM model forecast.

To summarize:

- Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Oklahoma are at risk for severe weather on March 24, 2015.
- This severe weather potential could be ruined by ongoing showers and storms early in the morning.

Andrew