Recent Arctic Sea Ice Records Suggest Another Frigid Winter Ahead

This is a follow-up post to the sea ice publication yesterday.

An examination of recent sea ice levels and their corresponding winter temperature anomalies indicates the winter of 2014-2015 may very well be heading down a colder than normal path this season.

NORSEX
Click to enlarge

The image above shows observations of sea ice areal coverage from the year of 2007 to the present year. 2014's sea ice coverage is seen in red, with other years defined by the color legend on the bottom-left corner of this graphic. Taking a glance over this image, we find that this year's sea ice coverage is running in the upper percentile of coverage compared to previous years, as the red line is well above the record-setting years of 2007 and 2012. The red line is located very close to the years of 2013 (black line), 2009 (neon green line), and 2010 (yellow-ish green line). To try and see if we can pull any useful data from here for the upcoming winter, I took a look at winter temperature anomalies for years with sea ice coverage similar to this year, in this case the three aforementioned years.

The results are quite ominous.

ESRL
Click to enlarge

The first year we'll examine is the winter of 2009-2010. The sea ice coverage was remarkably similar to what we've experienced thus far in 2014, and is similar to what we're expected to see later on this year. Temperature anomalies during the winter of 2009-2010 were predominantly below-normal across the country. The cold was maximized in the Central Plains and Gulf Coast, while persisting across the Midwest, Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. The Upper Midwest, New England, and West Coast regions experienced above normal temperatures this winter. Overall, this winter brought about a significant cold trend to most of the nation, something we may have to watch for if this sea ice similarity stands.

ESRL
Click to enlarge

The following winter, the winter of 2010-2011, also saw a remarkable similarity in sea ice between the year of 2010 and the present year of 2014, even more so than the year of 2009. The winter of 2010-2011 was yet another cold one, with the below-normal temperatures entrenched best in the Northern Plains and Southeast. Below-normal conditions were spread across the Midwest and Central Plains, all the way into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The Southwest observed predominantly above-normal temperature anomalies, as did a portion of the South Plains. Small fractions of the Upper Midwest and New England regions also saw relatively warm winters, though the overall nation was gripped by below-normal temperatures. The trend of below-normal temperatures with similar sea ice coverage is quickly becoming better defined.

ESRL
Click to enlarge

Lastly, the sea ice graph tells us that this past year, the year of 2013, is matching up quite well with sea ice coverage in 2014. So, as rough as it may be to do so, we must re-analyze the winter of 2013-2014. As most of us may remember, this past winter was not a good one, and temperature anomalies reflect this. Anomalies across the country ranged from several degrees above normal, to nearly ten degrees below normal. The core of the cold was placed in the Midwest and Upper Midwest, though below-normal temperatures enveloped a wide swath of the Lower 48. Only the Southwest and Southeast regions saw above-normal temperatures.

While the sample size is rather small, it is no secret now that years with similar ice coverage as the current one saw below-normal to well-below-normal temperatures in the following winter. It'll take a few more months to determine how valid this correlation may be, but this is yet another ominous sign of many that are telling of a cold winter ahead this season.

Andrew

Arctic Circle Observations Indicate Immense Cold Air Available

Observations of Arctic temperatures and sea ice indicate quite a plethora of very cold air in the region.

COI

The image above shows a history of sea ice coverage by millions of square miles, recording coverage from present day (black line) to 2005. As the chart shows, we are currently near the upper envelope of sea ice coverage, when compared to the last ten years of sea ice records. The black line even seems to resemble the sea ice coverage from this time in 2013, as the dandelion-yellow line shows. The availability of this sea ice is beneficial to those of us hoping for a cold winter ahead. Such a swath of sea ice enables cold air to sustain itself in near the North Pole for a longer period of time. After all, you can't have a cold winter if there's no cold air up north to begin with.

COI

The chart above shows a record of temperatures in the far north Arctic since January 1st of this year, with benchmark days on the bottom legend. The red line on this graphic depicts observed Arctic temperatures, while the green line indicates average temperatures for a given time of year. The constant blue demarcation is the temperature of 273 degrees Kelvin, the equivalent of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0 degrees Celsius; the freezing temperature. Just eyeballing this chart, we find that temperatures have only risen above average twice this entire summer, with the first occurrence only lasting one or two days. The ongoing above-average anomaly appears a bit stronger, but does not outweigh the general below-normal trend in temperatures for the summer, reflected well in the above normal sea ice anomalies.

Similar to last year, Arctic sea ice is running above normal, while temperatures are running below normal. These two factors are likely to play some role this winter, though to what degree is unknown. What we can gather at this moment, however, is that there is a vast reservoir of cold air available up north; a positive sign for those wishing for a repeat of this past winter.

Andrew