2/17/12- Morning Briefing

Contents of this morning briefing:
-Initialization Issues
-Surface Analysis
-Side Notes

0z Model Initialization Issues...
ECMWF/GFS initialized with little or no problems.
NOGAPS/GGEM initialized with little or no problems.

Surface analysis continues to indicate the storm system mess being pushed eastward while another system is brought down from Canada. It should bring clouds and maybe some precipitation to parts of the Midwest and Plains. The storm system that is being watched for Feb. 18-19 is currently in Mexico, just a bit west of the warm front that lines the Gulf Coast this morning.

Side Notes:
•In case you have not noticed, there are now Commenting Guidelines on the right sidebar. By commenting on this blog you are agreeing to those set terms that can change at any time without prior notice.
•I'm feeling pretty tired today, but should be able to kick out some posts. This looks to be a more mild cold, so full posting (and production of the personal spring severe weather forecasts) will resume soon.

-Andrew

2/16/12- Afternoon Briefing

Well, luckily the cold hasn't hit head-on yet, so I should be able to keep on trucking for the rest of the day.

Contents of this Afternoon Briefing:
-Model Initialization Issues
-Surface Analysis
-Side Notes

12z Model Initialization Issues...
ECMWF/GFS initialized with little or no issues.
NOGAPS initialized with little or no issues.
GGEM is not favored this run.

Surface Analysis is showing the big jumble of low pressure systems moving to the east. There appears to be a minimal severe threat for the Southeast for the rest of the day. Strong High pressure will hold in place over the Plains.

Side Notes:
-I was looking over comments, and one indicated that there was a security issue with our Models page. If you did comment that, please comment below indicating what the problem is/was, as I take security very seriously (here is the comment).
-As I indicated, I may be on the verge of getting one of my semi-annual colds. They are very infrequent, but when they happen, they are usually on the stronger side. That said, posting will likely be on the downturn in the next couple days.
-For those curious why I am not favoring the GGEM, It appears that it initialized the system in Michigan wrong. That's about it.

-Andrew

2/16/12- Morning Briefing

Morning everyone. I'm still on the verge of getting a cold, so don't expect too much over the next couple days.

Initialization Issues with 0z models...
GFS and ECMWF appear to have initialized with little or no problems.

Surface Analysis indicates the low pressure system is moving through Michigan, attached via several fronts to another jumble of low pressure systems. I'm thinking that there may be an opportunity for some severe weather if the warm front stretches out further east on the southernmost low pressure system. This opportunity may be increased further by the presence of an intersecting occluded front, warm front and cold front to make an infamous 'triple point', where some of the worst tornadoes have been recorded. I find that both these potential threat indicators will not be doing much to increase the threat as the warm front is too close to the low pressure system which then does not have enough time to bring up unstable air for strong storms.

Potential Future Storms...
There is some 'chatter' over a possible coastal storm over the next 7 days. Glancing at the NCEP ensembles gives me the feeling that this will be too far out to sea if current forecasts verified from the GFS. The ECMWF appears a tad slower and a tad weaker than the GFS for this storm as well, so I will leave the situation alone until a closer timeframe when things become easier to look at.

Notice

Hey everyone, I'm sorry for not posting any updates. I just brought back a new pet and have been introducing it around. Also, it looks like I'm on the verge of one of my rare colds. Don't expect anything big soon.
Sorry again,
-Andrew

February 14-18 Snow Event- Model Discussion (2/14/12)

Happy Valentines Day!

We re starting to see a southward shift in the models. Here's the last 4 runs of the GFS model.

You can see the trend south from earlier model runs using the color code on the bottom right. The storm we are tracking is the one going through South Missouri and Northwest Ohio. If this were to continue, cities such as Des Moines and Chicago may get in on the snowfall. That is yet to be determined, though.

However, some models are actually trending north...

CMC Model last 2 runs

The CMC Model has shifted north from it's last 12z run yesterday and now puts the system right over Chicago. I have yet to determine why and cannot this morning as I am unusually busy.

UKMET Model

Even though the CMC model is going north and the GFS is going south, the UKMET looks like it's taking neutral ground at this point. I think, however, that based on the proximity to the event occurring and model trending that I will be looking towards the GFS for guidance.

In these times of model turbulence it is important to see 0z verification to determine potential accuracy.

UKX- UKMET
NGX- NOGAPS
EMX- ECMWF

The models closest to the bottom of the image are the most accurate. Using that, we see that the ECMWF is the model to watch until hour 72, when the SREF Ensembles take over the show. The ECMWF has frames that are 24 hours in between, so it's hard to track the storm at this time. So let's see the SREF.

The 21z (0z) run of the SREF Ensembles are still split right now. And they have a right to be. While the event is only a couple days out, the models themselves are not exactly pulled together. This is the 0z SREF, which shows 2 possible paths- the CMC (North) path against the GFS (South) path. The UKMET is in neutral territory.

Here is the latest 3z (6z) SREF Ensembles. These ones have cut down on the northern path and appear to be headed for the GFS or UKMET solutions, which are the southern track and neutral territory, respectively. I have always liked using the ensembles, as a group consensus is worth more than a singular proposition.

Analogues can still come in use right now.
Here's snowfall from the March 7th, 1999 snowstorm.

This is my personal favorite, as it is using a La Nina phase for the analogue. This could very well be possible for the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I don't know about the northeast, I have to read up on it.

All in all, this storm should be very interesting. When new data comes in this afternoon, I will certainly let you know.

-Andrew