Sunday, April 3, 2011

April 3-5 Severe Weather Outbreak Series: The Write-up (April 3)

Today, severe storms will impact the Plains and Midwest with force, initiating a squall line over the area.

THE SET-UP
A strong cap will develop over the area, suppressing storms. Around 10:30 CDT tonight, that cap is expected to break, and storms will initiate over the area.
Timing is not spot-on, so development could occur between early this afternoon or late this evening.
The cap will hold in warm, moist air, allowing for instability to build up.
Already, at the time of publishing, CAPE values of 3000 were in the Plains, indicative of a very unstable environment.
The squall line expected will form from a cold front, as a warm front drags warm, moist air north and the col front slides east.

THE STORMS
The storms will come from the South and strengthen into an organized squall line. These storms will be capable of producing hail 1-2 inches, heavy rainfall, winds gusting up to 70 mph, and tornadoes.
The tornadoes will be possible early on in the storms.

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