Saturday, June 18, 2011

June 18- Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 60% chance for tropical cyclone formation for a system to the west of extreme south Mexico. The system in mention has not become better organized over last night. However, there remains a window of opportunity in which this system can become a tropical cyclone (depression, storm, etc.)
Infrared satellite imagery is messy right now. There is a cluster of strong storms to the west of the low pressure system. This may be interfering with development of this system. There is currently no defined center of this system, with no circulation evident.
This system may actually be overhyped, as I am not seeing this system developing with how horribly disorganized this system is right now, as well as the cluster of storms to the west of the low pressure system.
Current surface analysis by the OPC doesn't help this system's case, but it does infer that potentially the cluster of storms could be actually related to the low pressure system. However, it's really hard to see right now because of how messy the system is.
There's a tropical wave moving onshore to Central America. Showers and storms are associated with this wave, and I will check up on this wave once and a while in case it becomes eligible for development when it crosses into the East Pacific Ocean.
Models have dropped off this solution of even making this system into a tropical cyclone. Either way, the models that do participate in this run keep it very close to land, with a couple models even making a landfall. I'm not going to rely on these models closely, because the models are sending mixed messages.
Even more models dropped off the intensity forecasts than the tracks of this storm. Maximum strength reaches tropical storm status, however even that may not happen.

I will watch this situation closely and issue more forecasts as necessary.

No comments: