Showers and thunderstorm activity has changed little in recent hours. It will only take a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression or storm to form out of this.
There has been a model or two pointing towards a landfall of this storm, and it is evident that a couple models have joined this solution. However, it is not enough for me to agree with that solution at this time.
We see some models diving down about 3-4 days away. What that could mean is a landfall of this system. Those 3 or 4 models suddenly diving down about 96 hours out are spelling a situation that would likely indicate a landfall of this system.
But more importantly is how tight these clouds are getting. Despite my earlier prediction being wrong, I do believe that a defined center of circulation is being formed in this system, spelling out a tropical depression or storm. I do believe a tropical storm/depression is currently forming or may form soon.
This storm system will be keeping our system busy for the next few days, and we will post updates as needed.