Monday, June 6, 2011

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

This system is and was the star of our two special tropical cyclone updates today. There is a near 100% chance of development over the next 48 hours with a system to the west of Central America.
Showers and thunderstorm activity has changed little in recent hours. It will only take a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression or storm to form out of this.
It does appear we will be dealing with a tropical cyclone system, so our first priority is knowing where this system will go. There is a very good solution in the works at this time, with many of the models taking this storm out to sea in more of a drifting motion.
There has been a model or two pointing towards a landfall of this storm, and it is evident that a couple models have joined this solution. However, it is not enough for me to agree with that solution at this time.
Intensity forecasts are our next item, and they are definitely eye candy in the tropical cyclone world. All models take this system into at least a tropical storm stage. However, Category 1 hurricane status has been rapidly diminishing in the way of prospects in the last day.
We see some models diving down about 3-4 days away. What that could mean is a landfall of this system. Those 3 or 4 models suddenly diving down about 96 hours out are spelling a situation that would likely indicate a landfall of this system.
We had been focusing on infrared imagery last time we posted, especially a hook in the west flank of this storm system. However, we can see it dissipated.
But more importantly is how tight these clouds are getting. Despite my earlier prediction being wrong, I do believe that a defined center of circulation is being formed in this system, spelling out a tropical depression or storm. I do believe a tropical storm/depression is currently forming or may form soon.

This storm system will be keeping our system busy for the next few days, and we will post updates as needed.

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