Monday, June 6, 2011

June 6- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 90% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system located to the west of Central America.
Thunderstorm activity in this system continues to organize itself, and environmental conditions are favorable for more development into a tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm or hurricane.
Looking at the image we do see swirls of banded clouds showing intense thunderstorms. It does appear transformation into a tropical depression/storm is occurring at this time.
There is a very good consensus over what will happen with this system. Current thinking is to take the system out to sea while keeping it close to land at some points. One stray model takes the storm through Mexico, re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, but with no other models agreeing, I will also disagree with that solution.
Intensity forecasts are also on a fairly good consensus, with all models letting the storm become a tropical storms, and most models indicating a Category 1 hurricane. 3 models take the system to Category 2 status, and one model prefers a climax at Category 3 hurricane status, classified as a major hurricane.

This system is looking very favorable to develop into a tropical system over the next 2 days, possibly into a hurricane. Stay with The Weather Centre for more information.

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