Monday, June 6, 2011

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 2 days for a system off the east coast of Central America.
A large low pressure system has changed little over the last several hours. The window is closing for development of this system as upper level winds will become unfavorable for development tomorrow.
Regardless of development, we have to know where this system will know. In pretty much the same solution as this morning, there is still a very large spread, with this ensemble suite taking the low anywhere from Louisiana to out in the Atlantic Ocean.
There is a slight consensus in some areas, such as taking the low out to sea and taking it to the west of Florida. That's about the best we can scrape out of the barrel in the ways of possible storm tracks.
The ensembles are done with this system and no longer project it to reach tropical cyclone status (then again, not many did in the first place.) There is a nice consensus for 2 days out, in which the system does not make it through the window of opportunity and dissipates shortly thereafter. Some models carry on that storm through the 5 days with little change in strength, maybe a slight downward turn in strength.
Infrared returns from this storm aren't too impressive, with very little organization and no defined circulation. There is only one band of somewhat intense thunderstorms, and for a good organization, it would be ideal for more organization and thunderstorms on the west flank of this storm system.

This storm will probably miss the window of opportunity and carry on its business, probably out to sea away from land and dissipate from there.

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