There is a near 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours for a system to the west of Central America.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the last several hours with this system. Should current trends continue, a tropical depression could form later today.
At this stage it is important to know where the storm may go. There remains a very good consensus for the storm to go out to sea. However, a small group of models has banded together to keep the models close to land. I really don't have a preference at this time, but would like to believe that this system should go out to sea.
Intensity forecasts have dramatically changed over the last few model runs. The 3 blue lines (models) no longer suddenly dive down in strength 3 days out but keep the storm at Category 1 strength. This means that those models no longer anticipate the storm making landfall, which is good news.
The other models keep the storm at high tropical storm strength or low Category 1 hurricane strength.
I'm really not sure if the scale means 2=20% or whatever 12 means, so I will just say if the probability is high or low based on the color on the scale and how high it is.
The storm's probability for development is about 2-3, so it's a pretty fair bet to say that a tropical cyclone will form soon.
I do expect this storm to become a tropical cyclone soon, and we will have a special update when that happens.