Tuesday, June 7, 2011

June 7- Evening Update- Tropical Depression ONE (East Pacific Ocean)

Tropical Depression ONE-E (The E stands for East Pacific)
Current Infrared imagery indicates the depression is becoming well organized, with intense thunderstorms occurring on the western edge of the center of circulation and the previously exposed east flank of this depression recovering.
Now is the crucial time for tracks and intensity forecasts to be monitored. We are already on the job.
There remains a good consensus of having this depression move out to sea, with only a few stray models reaching out towards more of a landfall storm in Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast also takes this depression out to sea, but keeps it at a fairly interesting angle parallel to land.
The NHC's strength forecast looks to strengthen this storm into a tropical storm this morning at 2 am EDT, with this storm reaching hurricane status potentially by 11 am EDT Thursday. The storm will remain somewhat stationary until the 11 am Wednesday time frame, when the system begins to pick up steam.
Intensity forecasts are in a good agreement at this point. All models except one take the storm into Category 1 Hurricane Status.
Notice the sudden drop in strength around hour 132 by the 2 turquoise models and one orange model. That is a signature sign of potential landfall by this storm. This could be devastating, as it would already be in Category 1 to potentially Category 2 hurricane strength.

This is the first of many discussions and updates to be issued concerning this tropical system. Remember to check back continuously for more updates and posts. Stay safe.

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