Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Mesoscale Discussion #1671

Mesoscale Discussion #1671 has been issued for NE Minnesota and North Wisconsin.

Discussion... Convective initiation expected within the next hour in NE Minnesota within an area of strong SBCAPE and an eroded CINH. Storms are expected to develop very soon now that the cap has been eroded from the region. EHI/STP parameters not too impressive in NE Minnesota, but elevated in Wisconsin. Derecho Composite is interesting, though, as it appears to have more lust than other parameters in the MN area. Damaging wind threat is there, and hail will be possible. I am anticipating this to be more of a scattered cell development rather than one large MCS (storm cluster). However, should the cells unite into a MCS, I expect the damaging wind threat to rise.
Interestingly enough, 23z RR model run is not showing any precipitation to come from the area. 22z HRRR also not for precipitation, but do believe precipitation may arise. I still have my doubts, but the SPC appears to have a firm opinion on this.
23z RUC develops small area of convection which quickly pushes away into Canada.
Again, I still have my doubts, but would rather say precipitation and be wrong than deny precipitation and be wrong.

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