Monday, October 17, 2011

6z Models Only Enhance Florida Tropical Concern

Dynamical Models
Statistical Models
(You can read about the difference in statistical and dynamical here)
The models this morning are the bearers of bad news as they continue to depict Florida getting hit with a landfall from a tropical system in coming days. It looks like both statistical and dynamical models are in agreement in this solution, with only a few outliers taking a different, unfavored solution. Below is the projected wind speed in knots.
These wind speeds really aren't strong enough for a hurricane but do appear to be strong enough for a tropical depression/storm at some point in time. Besides- the wind is not the only effect- rainfall amounts will certainly be watched as the storm affects the US. Here is 5-day rainfall forecasts for the US.
You can definitely see the rainfall effect this storm is projected to have on Florida, as well as how the system will ride the coast and produce rain in that area as well. The National Hurricane Center has upped the chance of development in the next 48 hours to 60%. Below is a satellite image of the system.
It should be noted that this system does have a good amount of convection going on right now, as well as near-tropical storm force winds over the Yucatan Channel. These thunderstorms are also becoming better organized. That, combined with an increase in wind speed, is a sign this system is getting serious about developing into a tropical system.

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